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Did any of you read the article? She acknowledged there are some cases where it’s working in well defined environments. But she clearly shows how we are curre

• 0zemp2c 3y ago
  > FSD has been 5 years away for… 15 years now? this was only Elon-time hallucinations that made for great marketing you won't get to Mars on Elon-time either, but that doesn't mean you won't get there
  • croes 3y ago
    >you won't get to Mars on Elon-time either, but that doesn't mean you won't get there Doesn't mean you will either.
  • EA-3167 3y ago
    It wasn't just Musk, it was Lyft and Uber, Waymo and the rest are all still doing it. Lyft's CEO just put out a statement saying "Soon now".
• thedrbrian 3y ago
  >FSD has been 5 years away for… 15 years now? FSD is going to be enabled on HW2 anyday now. Oh look at that HW4 just rolled out.
• detaro 3y ago
  > FSD has been 5 years away for… 15 years now? the past few years it has been "later this year"
• candiddevmike 3y ago
  Shit like this makes you realize how behind the curve NHTSA and other government regulators are. Why aren't they putting more guardrails around self driving? What do they stand to lose by enforcing common sense ideas like the ones in the article?
  • philipov 3y ago
    What do they stand to lose? Cushy industry jobs.
  • jackmott42 3y ago
    Because the USA is a country ruled by large corporations and/or wealthy individuals, not by the people. The large corporations wants to be free to do self driving experiments, so they do it.
  • Veserv 3y ago
    They person interviewed, Missy Cummings, was appointed by the Biden administration to be a senior safety advisor to NHTSA. Elon Musk directed his fans (who are also largely shareholders) to viciously attack her which included sending death threats [1]. She was then ordered to recuse herself from any Tesla related matters due to a petition driven by those same Tesla shareholders. [1] https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/28/cars/tesla-ntsb-cummings/index.html https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/28/cars/tesla-ntsb-cummings/...
    • okdood64 3y ago
      > Elon Musk directed his fans Where'd he do this? Have a link? Curious.
      • Veserv 3y ago
        As stated in the article, he called her extremely biased against Tesla: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1450653942938054656?s=20 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1450653942938054656?s=20 Out of context, the tweet is largely innocuous as plenty of people might tweet such things. However, immediately following that tweet Missy Cummings was harassed ferociously by the Tesla shareholder base as seen here [1]. One of the leaders of the petition immediately following the tweet was Omar Qazi of WholeMarsBlog who is such a rabid fan and shareholder that he sees no issue with endangering children to support Tesla’s stock price as seen here [2] and the corresponding article. He also advocates for harassing any critics with vicious, baseless accusations [3]. Even if we assume that Elon is not directly organizing the attacks or by proxy, he has deliberately shaped a shareholding fanbase who will at the slightest mention. And, even if we assume that such a virulent base was purely accidental, which it never is, public figures have a moral duty to consider the likely consequences of their actions or speech. His followers, many of which he engages with and responds to on Twitter such as the aforementioned Onar Qazi, are well known to viciously attack people he identifies as critics. These are not fringe elements, but the core of his fanbase. His actions are all but guaranteed to result in harassment of his critics, which is to his benefit, and he makes no effort to stop such interpretation, but rather harnesses it to suppress his opponents. [1] https://twitter.com/MoodyHikmet/status/1451332679597625344 https://twitter.com/MoodyHikmet/status/1451332679597625344 [2] https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1558122848601812993 https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1558122848601812993 [3] https://dawnproject.com/what-is-the-credibility-and-character-of-omar-qazi-wholemarsblog/ https://dawnproject.com/what-is-the-credibility-and-characte...
• ma2rten 3y ago
  It seems very ignorant to bet against AI given all the progress that have been made in that last year (!).
  • htag 3y ago
    It seems overly optimistic to expect a breakthrough.
  • jstx1 3y ago
    It seems intellectually lazy to assume that the present continues reliably into the future. You need a more concrete argument than "we've been making progress so far so we'll keep making progress", or if you're on the other side of the argument, you need something better than "this hasn't happened yet so it will never happen".
  • kuboble 3y ago
    If the progress of neutral networks-based AI has thought me anything then I expect more and more applications where it's amazingly capable some time, capable most of the time and completely fails still relatively often. I am really skeptical at this point if it can ever master something to the point where we can safely trust our lives with it.
  • WA 3y ago
    Two entirely separate fields, both with a similar problem: not good enough. Impressive, but makes mistakes and an 80% solution is not what you want for self-driving cars.
    • cookieperson 3y ago
      I would struggle to risk my life and my family on even a 99% solution. Is a FSD wants to drive me head on to a railway one day, which has happened, I think I'd rather have been at the wheel. That's just me though. I view my life as mission critical.
  • pmontra 3y ago
    Most people in 1969 would probably say the same about betting against humans on Mars well before the end of the 20th century.
• StrangeATractor 3y ago
  Fun story, I was in a loaner car from a dealership which had lane assist. I was driving in the desert around a corner against a cliff so I couldn't see around it very well. Right around the corner there was a small boulder in the road which I had to swerve to avoid, except the lane assist fought me on it since it would cross the painted lines. It wasn't like a near death experience or anything, but it really made me think on how the systems meant to protect us can be what causes a life threatening problem if they aren't designed well. If I had to swerve to avoid another rock or a wayward vehicle, compensating for my own vehicle's unexpected response to driver input is at the bottom of the list of things I'd want.
  • DwnVoteHoneyPot 3y ago
    An extreme example of this is the Boeing 737 MAX.
    • ikekkdcjkfke 3y ago
      If I recall correctly it was trying to emulate the handling of the 737 so that the pilots didn't need to go thrpugh lengthy training
  • m-ee 3y ago
    Even without any obstacles a rented jeep Cherokee felt like it was constantly trying to kill me on mountain roads. The lane assist also turned itself back on every time the car started. Another baffling feature was that the car refused to move after stopping at stop sign. Turns out there’s a “safety feature” to disable the engine if the seatbelt is not buckled. Thankfully I was just looking for parking and the only consequence was some inconvenienced cars behind me but that could get really bad in the wrong situation.
    • cassianoleal 3y ago
      On my dad's car, the middle back seatbelt has a pretty odd behaviour. It doesn't stretch at all if the car is moving, but it is allowed to contract. This means: - if the person sitting in the middle has failed to buckle up or at least stretch the belt enough before the car started moving, now they can't do it until the car stops again; - whenever the person in that place breathes out, they're running the risk of not being able to breathe back in next. - when the car accelerates, there is a tendency for the person to weigh back into the seat. That causes the belt to contract. Repeat the 2 latter points enough, and it becomes practically impossible to breathe or even to undo the buckle so you get trapped quite literally dying of asphyxia and in pain from the belt pressing hard against you.
• hbarka 3y ago
  The greatest trick Musk played was marketing the lane-keeping assist feature of Tesla as “Autopilot” or FSD. It is the best lane-keeping assist I’ll give it that but FSD not in five years and not until commodity LIDAR and map-sensing. Mobileye deserves credit for jumpstarting Tesla’s lane-keeping assist early on.
• natch 3y ago
  I think most people would agree that the middle zone is not ideal for most drivers. However, there may be no other way to someday reach level 5 for general driving, other than to live with that middle zone for a while (keeping in mind that it’s already safer than humans driving alone) in order to conduct the training needed to reach level 5. You don’t just wish, or regulate, level 5 into existence. You need to build toward it by having real systems deployed in the real world. Those real systems are not going to be level 5 at first or even level 3. This is where we are today, for general driving we only have level 2 and some level 3 if that. Training is needed not only for the systems but also for drivers (including other drivers in traditional vehicles, they are also being trained unwittingly) and pedestrians, and regulators. Everyone is learning here. It’s not just an overnight, snap of the fingers kind of thing.
  • nytesky 3y ago
    I believe the article speaks to the lack of data: we don’t know if L3 is safer. Safer than a drunk driver or a tired long haul, maybe. But a typical driver that would also use L3 responsibly, it may not be safer.
  • nytesky 3y ago
    One other huge disadvantage of L3. As driver physically drive less and less while models learn, their skills will wither and when the car gives up control it will be to out of practice drivers.
  • twelve40 3y ago
    This training in the wild sounds scary at first, until i remembered that we've done something similar with air travel, basically "training" with live people and fatalities. But over the years we did reduce those from 40 crashes/mil to 0.1 crashes per million flights. I would not want to fly on those early jets in the 50's, but enough people actually took that chance!
    • liminvorous 3y ago
      40 crashes per million flights has still got to be better than current road safety, at a very rough calculation the US for example had 128 road deaths per million people, which I'm admittedly not sure how to convert to make a fair comparison.
• natch 3y ago
  > we are currently in the most dangerous phase I did read the article. It’s ironic given her anti-Tesla stance how Tesla exactly follows what she recommends… “No hands-free L2” is pretty much exactly what Tesla urges and enforces its drivers to follow. Is the enforcement perfect? No, of course not; humans are simultaneously stupid and creative.
  • amluto 3y ago
    Try reading it again. She thinks that either the driver should control the car or the car should control the car. Hands on a wheel while the car steers is not a driver controlling the car. Tesla does exactly what she objects to. Wayne did a study several years ago IIRC and determined that even their trained, professional drivers being paid for this exact task could not reliably, effectively and quickly take over driving when a self-driving car made a mistake. It’s a task that humans are really quite bad at. I know I am. Steering a car on an average road: not a big deal. Taking over on time when a new, borrowed Tesla tries to mess up on that same road: not so easy. Also, it takes more concentration than just steering the car normally.
    • natch 3y ago
      Hah, you try reading it again. "So, no L3 [full self-driving, but the driver must be ready to take the wheel], which is too confusing, and no hands-free L2 [partial self-driving]." Let's zoom in on the part so you can read it, too: "no hands-free" Tesla requires its users to keep their hands on the wheel at all times, so they agree. You have your opinion about this, which you explain, but it differs from her opinion as expressed in the article. Key point (read the quote): She puts hands-on L2 inside the bounds of what she accepts. That is also exactly what Tesla currently provides.
  • EdwardDiego 3y ago
    Apparently data and people who use it to make decisions have an anti-Tesla stance.
    • natch 3y ago