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"For one thing, recent climate models have all but ruled out most of the worst-case scenarios for warming. Although it’ll be very difficult to hold warming belo
by Devasta 3y ago
"For one thing, recent climate models have all but ruled out most of the worst-case scenarios for warming. Although it’ll be very difficult to hold warming below the 1.5 degrees generally considered “safe”, there’s now a good chance that we can hold warming below the 2 degree level, which is around the point where words like “catastrophic” start to make sense:"
The linked Twitter thread in the article suggests warming between 2.4 and 3 degrees.
Noah Smith being relentlessly stupid is par for the course, but trying to prevent doomerism by suggesting "There is a decent chance civilization won't end in the next 100 years" is a bit much even for him.
- wilg 3y agoThe link you mention is in the first sentence and refers to "all but ruled out most of the worst-case scenarios". [0] The second sentence, about "a good chance that we can hold warming below the 2 degree level" links to a different tweet, with different data [1]. I don't think there's any risk of "civilization ending" below 4 or 5 degrees. In the future, before calling someone "relentlessly stupid", you probably should check whether you've understood correctly what they're saying. But this is the sort of emotionally charged rhetoric that happens when people are primed for the apocalypse! That's why doomerism is a problem! It's cathartic, but not helpful. [0] https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1425504599167827968 https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1425504599167827968 [1] https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1465330361077018634 https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1465330361077018634