4 ms·

He doesn't face prison if he loses, and he'd probably run again and have a good chance to win, depending on how it goes. I wouldn't bet on him not pulling funn

by mastax 3y ago

He doesn't face prison if he loses, and he'd probably run again and have a good chance to win, depending on how it goes. I wouldn't bet on him not pulling funny business but it's not out of the question.

mrtksn 3y ago
He might very well face prison. Corruption allegations are in the scale of billions and these allegations are all done by his ex partners. The evidence is patchy but some allegations are very credible. We even had video records and phone records collected by the police but he got away because those who collected these records were connected to a religious cult which is very unpopular among the population and suspected of covert political actions since decades. That said, some evidence is too hard to ignore. For example, there's the case of a bank CEO who was caught with millions of dollars in shoeboxes at his home, in connection with the Erdogan alegations. He was handed back the money and left alone on camera. There are huge number of people with grievances towards Erdogan, the population wouldn't be satisfied if Erdogan doesn't face some justice. He accumulated so much hate during his tenure and he and his family become incredibly rich when huge number of people suffered. It's not going to be a finished business without getting tried on these things.
- akudha 3y ago
  In case of high profile people it is often not the lack of evidence, it is the lack of will to prosecute them. Apart from some fines, has Trump faced any consequence, ever? There is enough evidence against him to fill a warehouse. I hope Erdogan gets voted out and faces consequences for the crap he pulled, I am skeptical though
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    The US does seem particularly skittish about prosecuting naughty politicians, tho.
    - akudha 3y ago
      I am not sure if U.S is unique in this though. Rich, powerful people can get away with a whole lotta stuff that ordinary people cannot, in most parts of the world.
      - rsynnott 3y ago
        Nah, it's definitely not unique in it, but, given that it's a developed democracy with an independent (YMMV based on state; terms and conditions apply) judiciary, it's very much on the "reluctant to annoy the important politicians" side.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    The American legal system is slow. Most litigation against Trump only really started in 2017 or 2018. A couple were thrown out due to procedural issues (blame that slimeball Avennati), but others have gone through. Also, most litigation mentioned against Trump is in the Civil Court system, where has has faced penalties. Criminal litigation on the other hand takes A LOT of time, especially if you hire a firm with a strong track record in defending their clients.
    - akudha 3y ago
      Do you honestly think if you or I had classified material, it will take years to prosecute us? He had classified material at his home, by the boxes, including some nuclear secrets. Feds were politely requesting him to give them back, for months. If you or I were doing it, we would be in a supermax cell somewhere or worse, pretty quickly. As for attorneys defending him, please take a look at people like Tacopina. Doesn't particularly inspire confidence.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        > Do you honestly think if you or I had classified material, it will take years to prosecute us? He had classified material at his home, by the boxes, including some nuclear secrets There was a DoJ decision to be slow and steady on the classified information litigation probe [0]. Going fast can cause mistakes to arise, which can cause cases to be thrown out due to technicalities. > As for attorneys defending him, please take a look at people like Tacopina. Doesn't particularly inspire confidence. It's not one lawyer throwing a shingle outside a strip mall. Tacopina, Seigel & DeOreo is a decently sized firm for criminal defense cases, and has had decent recent successes [1] Btw - I am not Republican and cases do legitimately take forever. Also there are multiple cases involving Trump occurring over different timelines. [0] - https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/garland-biden-trump-classified-document-probes-00079072 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/garland-biden-trump... [1] - https://www.tacopinalaw.com/notable-case/ https://www.tacopinalaw.com/notable-case/
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Hot/Unpopular Take: For the sake of developing Turkey, it might be best for them to adopt the South Korean model of the incoming President pardoning the outgoing president of wrongdoing and ongoing crimes. That is the only way to ensure peaceful transitions in countries where democratic norms are still being developed.
  - mrtksn 3y ago
    Interesting, I haven't heard of this. However, wouldn't that mean that those in power would have nothing to fear to do the worst tings possible? The Turkish "tradition" is to switch power every 20 years and destroy those who previously held power. Before Erdogan, the secularists were in power and they are just as corrupt and oppressive. Their dominance in business and public life was systematically eroded and unfairly destroyed by Erdogan. The new secular opposition is much more liberal and actually harbours the ideals of the Erdogan's first term when he was considered liberal. Actually the significant portion of the current opposition which is expected to win tomorrow consist of the "light" version of the soft nationalist, peaceful islamist, economic liberals, political kurds and soft seculars. Very ironically, the remains of the politics who were destroyed by Erdogan are on the Erdogan's side on this election: The ultra nationalist, the hardcore islamists, the social democrats(which were in power when erdogan came), the Kemalists and the Kurds with history of violence(one part islamist kurds with connections to designated terrorist organisation and one part the communist guerrilla Kurds). It's actually immensely entertaining. Erdogan has turned into the thing he came to destroy. Even more ironically, Erdogan came into power during an economical crisis and after a huge earthquake and he is about to lose power again during an economical crisis and huge earthquake.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      > However, wouldn't that mean that those in power would have nothing to fear to do the worst tings possible? Yep. That's the MASSIVE downside of the Korean model and why there is an insane amount of cynicism against politicians in South Korea. But the alternative is 3-5 years of violent demonstrations. The Korean model of pardons started in the 1980s when Korea was transitioning from a Military Dicatorship into a (kind of) Democracy. The elected dictator Chun Doo-hwan (1979-1988) was pardoned by democratically elected Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993) who was then pardoned by Kim Young-sam (1993-1997) after being "advised" by incoming president Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003). The same thing happened in the 2010s when Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) was pardoned by Park Geun-hye (2013-2017) who herself was pardoned by Moon Jae-in (2017-2022). (Edit: pardons were given towards the end of the 2nd president's term, as rightly pointed out below) All this was done specifically to ensure social stability at the expense of "true democracy", but the results show for themselves. Turkey in 2023 is comparable to South Korea in the 1980s-90s, and can only grow if bygones are kept as bygones and people concentrate on the future. The alternative is 5-10 years of political polarization as well as incentivizing people to hold on to power to keep criminal immunity, thus perverting governance for the sake of minimizing personal liability.
shultays 3y ago
I was going to say "he is almost 70" but then noticed the main opposition is 75 But it is claimed he has major health issues and current election is not doing any good on his health.

by mastax 3y ago

mrtksn 3y ago

He might very well face prison. Corruption allegations are in the scale of billions and these allegations are all done by his ex partners. The evidence is patchy but some allegations are very credible. We even had video records and phone records collected by the police but he got away because those who collected these records were connected to a religious cult which is very unpopular among the population and suspected of covert political actions since decades. That said, some evidence is too hard to ignore. For example, there's the case of a bank CEO who was caught with millions of dollars in shoeboxes at his home, in connection with the Erdogan alegations. He was handed back the money and left alone on camera. There are huge number of people with grievances towards Erdogan, the population wouldn't be satisfied if Erdogan doesn't face some justice. He accumulated so much hate during his tenure and he and his family become incredibly rich when huge number of people suffered. It's not going to be a finished business without getting tried on these things.

akudha 3y ago
In case of high profile people it is often not the lack of evidence, it is the lack of will to prosecute them. Apart from some fines, has Trump faced any consequence, ever? There is enough evidence against him to fill a warehouse. I hope Erdogan gets voted out and faces consequences for the crap he pulled, I am skeptical though
- rsynnott 3y ago
  The US does seem particularly skittish about prosecuting naughty politicians, tho.
  - akudha 3y ago
    I am not sure if U.S is unique in this though. Rich, powerful people can get away with a whole lotta stuff that ordinary people cannot, in most parts of the world.
    - rsynnott 3y ago
      Nah, it's definitely not unique in it, but, given that it's a developed democracy with an independent (YMMV based on state; terms and conditions apply) judiciary, it's very much on the "reluctant to annoy the important politicians" side.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  The American legal system is slow. Most litigation against Trump only really started in 2017 or 2018. A couple were thrown out due to procedural issues (blame that slimeball Avennati), but others have gone through. Also, most litigation mentioned against Trump is in the Civil Court system, where has has faced penalties. Criminal litigation on the other hand takes A LOT of time, especially if you hire a firm with a strong track record in defending their clients.
  - akudha 3y ago
    Do you honestly think if you or I had classified material, it will take years to prosecute us? He had classified material at his home, by the boxes, including some nuclear secrets. Feds were politely requesting him to give them back, for months. If you or I were doing it, we would be in a supermax cell somewhere or worse, pretty quickly. As for attorneys defending him, please take a look at people like Tacopina. Doesn't particularly inspire confidence.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      > Do you honestly think if you or I had classified material, it will take years to prosecute us? He had classified material at his home, by the boxes, including some nuclear secrets There was a DoJ decision to be slow and steady on the classified information litigation probe [0]. Going fast can cause mistakes to arise, which can cause cases to be thrown out due to technicalities. > As for attorneys defending him, please take a look at people like Tacopina. Doesn't particularly inspire confidence. It's not one lawyer throwing a shingle outside a strip mall. Tacopina, Seigel & DeOreo is a decently sized firm for criminal defense cases, and has had decent recent successes [1] Btw - I am not Republican and cases do legitimately take forever. Also there are multiple cases involving Trump occurring over different timelines. [0] - https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/garland-biden-trump-classified-document-probes-00079072 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/garland-biden-trump... [1] - https://www.tacopinalaw.com/notable-case/ https://www.tacopinalaw.com/notable-case/
alephnerd 3y ago
Hot/Unpopular Take: For the sake of developing Turkey, it might be best for them to adopt the South Korean model of the incoming President pardoning the outgoing president of wrongdoing and ongoing crimes. That is the only way to ensure peaceful transitions in countries where democratic norms are still being developed.
- mrtksn 3y ago
  Interesting, I haven't heard of this. However, wouldn't that mean that those in power would have nothing to fear to do the worst tings possible? The Turkish "tradition" is to switch power every 20 years and destroy those who previously held power. Before Erdogan, the secularists were in power and they are just as corrupt and oppressive. Their dominance in business and public life was systematically eroded and unfairly destroyed by Erdogan. The new secular opposition is much more liberal and actually harbours the ideals of the Erdogan's first term when he was considered liberal. Actually the significant portion of the current opposition which is expected to win tomorrow consist of the "light" version of the soft nationalist, peaceful islamist, economic liberals, political kurds and soft seculars. Very ironically, the remains of the politics who were destroyed by Erdogan are on the Erdogan's side on this election: The ultra nationalist, the hardcore islamists, the social democrats(which were in power when erdogan came), the Kemalists and the Kurds with history of violence(one part islamist kurds with connections to designated terrorist organisation and one part the communist guerrilla Kurds). It's actually immensely entertaining. Erdogan has turned into the thing he came to destroy. Even more ironically, Erdogan came into power during an economical crisis and after a huge earthquake and he is about to lose power again during an economical crisis and huge earthquake.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > However, wouldn't that mean that those in power would have nothing to fear to do the worst tings possible? Yep. That's the MASSIVE downside of the Korean model and why there is an insane amount of cynicism against politicians in South Korea. But the alternative is 3-5 years of violent demonstrations. The Korean model of pardons started in the 1980s when Korea was transitioning from a Military Dicatorship into a (kind of) Democracy. The elected dictator Chun Doo-hwan (1979-1988) was pardoned by democratically elected Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993) who was then pardoned by Kim Young-sam (1993-1997) after being "advised" by incoming president Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003). The same thing happened in the 2010s when Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) was pardoned by Park Geun-hye (2013-2017) who herself was pardoned by Moon Jae-in (2017-2022). (Edit: pardons were given towards the end of the 2nd president's term, as rightly pointed out below) All this was done specifically to ensure social stability at the expense of "true democracy", but the results show for themselves. Turkey in 2023 is comparable to South Korea in the 1980s-90s, and can only grow if bygones are kept as bygones and people concentrate on the future. The alternative is 5-10 years of political polarization as well as incentivizing people to hold on to power to keep criminal immunity, thus perverting governance for the sake of minimizing personal liability.

shultays 3y ago

I was going to say "he is almost 70" but then noticed the main opposition is 75 But it is claimed he has major health issues and current election is not doing any good on his health.