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The Deflation Is Here, and It Wasn't the Rate Hikes

• cs702 3y ago
  The OP offers zero evidence of deflation, i.e., actual data showing that some consumer or producer prices are declining. Instead, the OP argues that medium- to long-term interest rates have declined in recent weeks, and this somehow that implies we'll get deflation if central banks don't stop raising rates now. That makes little sense to me. It ignores that longer-term rates are not rising faster in large measure because no one wants a higher-rate environment. Consumers don't want it because it would kill their pay-later purchasing power. Businesses don't want it because it would increase their cost of capital. Banks don't want it because it would wreck their long-term assets. Government treasuries don't want it because it would increase interest costs and worsen deficits. Only central banks sort-of-want it -- and only to the extent it helps bring inflation down without threatening financial stability. Central banks will continue to raise rates and let bonds mature (i.e., QT) until they see data showing core inflation is coming down to desired levels (~2%/year in the US). Central banks will stop mid-way only if there's a threat to financial stability.