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By the end of [election] night, Mr. Silver had predicted the popular vote within one percentage point, predicted 49 of 50 states’ results correctly, and predict
by ryanmahoski 18y ago
By the end of [election] night, Mr. Silver had predicted the popular vote within one percentage point, predicted 49 of 50 states’ results correctly, and predicted all of the resolved Senate races correctly.
From his posted predictions back in March? W-o-w.
- StrawberryFrog 18y agoUh, no. The final result was not predicted from March's data. For one thing, remember how the polls changed in October when the Economy hit the fan?
- ryanmahoski 18y agoDoh. Yes that would make more sense. The article was probably referencing his day-before predictions. Thank you for the correction.
- Goladus 18y agoNo, his site maintained an updated assessment of the current probability. I'm not really sure what the article means when it says he 'called it' in March. He was probably just showing Obama with a greater chance of winning.
- unalone 18y agoHe showed Obama with a higher percentage except for immediately after Palin, and then he explained that it was a bump that promised to diminish. What impressed me about his site isn't just his predictions, but how good he was at predicting how his model would change in the future. He could predict how his model would change every day for a week in advance, and he was almost always right as to how the "market" would react.