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I hope markets don't panic and I think the chances of an actual default are extremely low. However, I don't think the chances of a default are zero. Everyone I
by simmons 3y ago
I hope markets don't panic and I think the chances of an actual default are extremely low. However, I don't think the chances of a default are zero. Everyone I talk to seems to be saying "A devastating default [i.e. not like the brief blip in 1971] has never happened, therefore it cannot happen." Which doesn't seem like sound reasoning to me.
I imagine there's no escaping the fallout of such a default, but I'm thinking it may be time to take a break from treasury ETFs for while.
- dllthomas 3y agoI really don't understand how default could ever be constitutional, although I don't think alternatives are great either.
- mkr-hn 3y agoThe constitution is, in the end, a piece of old paper in a climate controlled box. It's on humans to bring it to life. Humans don't always do the things they say they will on paper even if they put one hand on a different book of paper and swear to while everyone watches.
- dllthomas 3y agoI don't disagree that it could happen without being constitutional. Of course, the debt ceiling is also a piece of paper, as are any laws restricting the printing of money, etc.
- thunky 3y ago> I think the chances of an actual default are extremely low It could only happen if our political leaders are incredibly stupid, reckless, and self serving. So I wouldn't bet against it. The fact we're even talking about it right now says a lot.