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From the perspective of economic and defense strategy related to chips, keep an eye on TSMC's efforts to expand cutting edge process development beyond Taiwan.

From the perspective of economic and defense strategy related to chips, keep an eye on TSMC's efforts to expand cutting edge process development beyond Taiwan. They are building new leading-edge fabs in Phoenix (@ 5nm) and Kumamoto (specialty processes). 2-3nm R&D will stay in Taiwan[0], but I'd expect TSMC has plans in place to rapidly evacuate their technical teams to the US and Japan if the political kitchen got too hot. [0] https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2022/08/31/2003784445 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2022/08/31/200...

bllguo 3y ago
The Phoenix fab is extremely likely to be a disaster. Even besides the cost of labor and incompatible work culture, the whole idea was a political concession to the US to begin with rather than genuine interest on TSMC's part. You can already easily find reports of discontent and setbacks, and that's just what's available in English. And I suspect you would be sorely disappointed with how many would be interested in packing up shop for the US, if it came to that. SMIC and others already have success luring engineers to the mainland.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
ladberg 3y ago
I highly doubt Taiwan would let TSMC evacuate their technical teams in the event of a possible conflict. TSMC's IP is one of Taiwan's biggest assets that keeps them from being taken over and I don't think Taiwan would let TSMC remove it from the playing field.
- _xivi 3y ago
  They can't just hold to TSMC forever, they will eventually lose this "shield" anyhow.
ftxbro 3y ago
Those fabs are already so expensive and even their foundations are so deep and exotic to prevent any vibration. Maybe the whole building is secretly constructed to be able to lift off at a moment's notice! Suddenly it's a fab zeppelin and it's floating through the air towards amnesty in Guam.
- giantrobot 3y ago
  Like Terran buildings in StarCraft.
  - ftxbro 3y ago
    I would say something about mutalisks here but I'm not actually anti China so I don't want to make some kind of terran versus zerg analogy.

bllguo 3y ago

The Phoenix fab is extremely likely to be a disaster. Even besides the cost of labor and incompatible work culture, the whole idea was a political concession to the US to begin with rather than genuine interest on TSMC's part. You can already easily find reports of discontent and setbacks, and that's just what's available in English. And I suspect you would be sorely disappointed with how many would be interested in packing up shop for the US, if it came to that. SMIC and others already have success luring engineers to the mainland.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

ladberg 3y ago

I highly doubt Taiwan would let TSMC evacuate their technical teams in the event of a possible conflict. TSMC's IP is one of Taiwan's biggest assets that keeps them from being taken over and I don't think Taiwan would let TSMC remove it from the playing field.

_xivi 3y ago
They can't just hold to TSMC forever, they will eventually lose this "shield" anyhow.

ftxbro 3y ago

Those fabs are already so expensive and even their foundations are so deep and exotic to prevent any vibration. Maybe the whole building is secretly constructed to be able to lift off at a moment's notice! Suddenly it's a fab zeppelin and it's floating through the air towards amnesty in Guam.

giantrobot 3y ago
Like Terran buildings in StarCraft.
- ftxbro 3y ago
  I would say something about mutalisks here but I'm not actually anti China so I don't want to make some kind of terran versus zerg analogy.