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This improves the chance of Erdogan's main opponent winning the election because opposition votes won't be split across multiple candidates. So despite the wei

by pavlov 4y ago

This improves the chance of Erdogan's main opponent winning the election because opposition votes won't be split across multiple candidates. So despite the weird sex tape business, this is a positive event if you think Turkey should move forward from the authoritarianism and incompetent economic management of the Erdogan era.

runsWphotons 4y ago
Other people are saying his voters are more likely to split towards Erdogan. Which is it?
- makmanalp 4y ago
  The likeliest answer is that it's too hard to tell - it's too small of a populace (1-2% or less likely) that's hard to reach in an unbiased way to sample properly for a poll (without it getting expensive, I guess). People are mostly speculating based on his attitudes and positions.
- pavlov 4y ago
  All I know is that the bond market thinks it’s a positive sign, and foreign investors aren’t rooting for Erdogan: ”Investors reacted positively to both the new polls and İnce’s withdrawal from the race, pushing the price of Turkey’s international bonds higher. A US dollar-denominated bond maturing in 2030 was trading on Thursday with a yield of 8.54 per cent, down from about 9.2 per cent at the start of the week. ”Bond yields fall when prices rise. The cost of protecting against a default on Turkish debt also declined, with the spread on five-year credit default swaps falling to 490 basis points from above 550 bps earlier this month, according to Bloomberg data. The spread had risen as high as almost 900 bps last summer.” (Financial Times)
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - rayiner 4y ago
    What should be our takeaway from the fact that foreign capitalists don’t like Erdoğan?
    - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
      Someone can be a totally awful authoritarian bad leader and be hated by (presumably also totally awful) foreign capitalists. That's a thing.
    - AbrahamParangi 4y ago
      It’s not like or dislike, they’re betting on the economic future of Türkiye - and their bet, with their money on the line, is that Erdoğan is bad for Türkiye.
      - pacija 4y ago
        I'd say they're betting on their possibility to extract wealth from Turkey, and their bet, with their money on the line, is that Erdogan is bad for their possibility to extract wealth from Turkye.
        n2d4 4y ago
        When they bet on bonds, they essentially bet on the government not to default. When they bet against bonds, they expect a sovereign default, which would be terrible for everyone involved.
        egeozcan 4y ago
        We are not talking about imperialist sources trying to colonize a nation. Capitalism has its shortcomings, which can surely be discussed, but it isn't an evil plan to reallocate the most resources from a zero-sum game to the "foreign capitalists".
        pacija 4y ago
        Of course not. We are talking about possibility to have businesses who will mostly employ local workers and mostly use local resources, some will maybe even pay fair local taxes, but whose majority of profits will move out of the country. Thus, wealth extraction.
psychlops 4y ago
> this is a positive event if you think Turkey should move forward from the authoritarianism and incompetent economic management Forward may very well be more of the same or worse. Only time will tell if their system is systemically and irrevocably broken.
- enraged_camel 4y ago
  What makes you think it may be irrevocably broken? Worth noting that unlike, say, the USA, Turkey does not have a constitution that was written two hundred plus years ago and is virtually impossible to change or update.
  - Retric 4y ago
    There’s been 5 amendments to the US constitution since 1960. In 1971 it took 100 days to pass the 26th amendment lowering voting age to 18. The largest barrier is it doesn’t have that many rules people want to change. It’s a short document and many things like requiring the president to be 35 just don’t come up very frequently. The few things that apply frequently such as free speech have broad support.
    - skyyler 4y ago
      > In 1971 it took 100 days to pass the 26th amendment lowering voting age to 18. I was taught in history class that this was rushed so quickly because congress thought it would reduce the number of student protests.
  - koolba 4y ago
    > Worth noting that unlike, say, the USA, Turkey does not have a constitution that was written two hundred plus years ago and is virtually impossible to change or update. That’s a feature, not a bug. It’s what keeps the USA from devolving to the 51% mob rule flavor of the month after each election.
    - TremendousJudge 4y ago

by pavlov 4y ago

runsWphotons 4y ago

Other people are saying his voters are more likely to split towards Erdogan. Which is it?

makmanalp 4y ago
The likeliest answer is that it's too hard to tell - it's too small of a populace (1-2% or less likely) that's hard to reach in an unbiased way to sample properly for a poll (without it getting expensive, I guess). People are mostly speculating based on his attitudes and positions.
pavlov 4y ago
All I know is that the bond market thinks it’s a positive sign, and foreign investors aren’t rooting for Erdogan: ”Investors reacted positively to both the new polls and İnce’s withdrawal from the race, pushing the price of Turkey’s international bonds higher. A US dollar-denominated bond maturing in 2030 was trading on Thursday with a yield of 8.54 per cent, down from about 9.2 per cent at the start of the week. ”Bond yields fall when prices rise. The cost of protecting against a default on Turkish debt also declined, with the spread on five-year credit default swaps falling to 490 basis points from above 550 bps earlier this month, according to Bloomberg data. The spread had risen as high as almost 900 bps last summer.” (Financial Times)
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- rayiner 4y ago
  What should be our takeaway from the fact that foreign capitalists don’t like Erdoğan?
  - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
    Someone can be a totally awful authoritarian bad leader and be hated by (presumably also totally awful) foreign capitalists. That's a thing.
  - AbrahamParangi 4y ago
    It’s not like or dislike, they’re betting on the economic future of Türkiye - and their bet, with their money on the line, is that Erdoğan is bad for Türkiye.
    - pacija 4y ago
      I'd say they're betting on their possibility to extract wealth from Turkey, and their bet, with their money on the line, is that Erdogan is bad for their possibility to extract wealth from Turkye.
      - n2d4 4y ago
        When they bet on bonds, they essentially bet on the government not to default. When they bet against bonds, they expect a sovereign default, which would be terrible for everyone involved.
      - egeozcan 4y ago
        We are not talking about imperialist sources trying to colonize a nation. Capitalism has its shortcomings, which can surely be discussed, but it isn't an evil plan to reallocate the most resources from a zero-sum game to the "foreign capitalists".
        pacija 4y ago
        Of course not. We are talking about possibility to have businesses who will mostly employ local workers and mostly use local resources, some will maybe even pay fair local taxes, but whose majority of profits will move out of the country. Thus, wealth extraction.

psychlops 4y ago

> this is a positive event if you think Turkey should move forward from the authoritarianism and incompetent economic management Forward may very well be more of the same or worse. Only time will tell if their system is systemically and irrevocably broken.

enraged_camel 4y ago
What makes you think it may be irrevocably broken? Worth noting that unlike, say, the USA, Turkey does not have a constitution that was written two hundred plus years ago and is virtually impossible to change or update.
- Retric 4y ago
  There’s been 5 amendments to the US constitution since 1960. In 1971 it took 100 days to pass the 26th amendment lowering voting age to 18. The largest barrier is it doesn’t have that many rules people want to change. It’s a short document and many things like requiring the president to be 35 just don’t come up very frequently. The few things that apply frequently such as free speech have broad support.
  - skyyler 4y ago
    > In 1971 it took 100 days to pass the 26th amendment lowering voting age to 18. I was taught in history class that this was rushed so quickly because congress thought it would reduce the number of student protests.
- koolba 4y ago
  > Worth noting that unlike, say, the USA, Turkey does not have a constitution that was written two hundred plus years ago and is virtually impossible to change or update. That’s a feature, not a bug. It’s what keeps the USA from devolving to the 51% mob rule flavor of the month after each election.
  - TremendousJudge 4y ago