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Because of all the conspiracy theories, it is not going to be pretty if there's a lockdown in the future for any reason whatsoever. Indeed, I think governments

by eli 3y ago

Because of all the conspiracy theories, it is not going to be pretty if there's a lockdown in the future for any reason whatsoever. Indeed, I think governments will be very reluctant to order a lockdown even if it's the right thing to do. This has nothing to do with facts about virus research though.

Cthulhu_ 3y ago
It feels like (at least in my country) all the lockdowns were part of an experiment; try something else, see if it works. At some point they tried a curfew for a few weeks, it had an effect but people didn't like it and enforcement was a huge issue (naturally). The other thing is that every time a measure was effective, they would stop doing it so that the cases would go back up again. That said, as China proved, a totalitarian lockdown (where people were locked in their house) didn't work in the long run either. China got back to productivity faster though, and gave their population time for a vaccine to be developed and distributed.
- bbarn 3y ago
  Correlation is the mother of conspiracy. "they would stop doing it so that the cases would go back up again" is quite the statement. How about this instead: "Extreme measures to slow down cases had obvious down sides and were used as sparingly as possible, and eased up when not as necessary"?
  - m3047 3y ago
    (Proven) correlation is not causation. It's correlation, meaning things are related. Causation would mean that something causes something else. Correlation, meaning things are related, means that one of them might be the cause of another, or they could all be the effects of some unrecognized / unobserved phenomenon. Correlation is the mother of conjecture; conspiracy is a bunch of people huddling in a small space breathing the same air and posting about it on twitter.
    - daveguy 3y ago
      Correlation is the mother of conspiracy. Without correlation there's no blanks to fill in with baseless conjecture. With correlation you get to jump to all the conspiratorial conclusions without any further evidence. That doesn't mean that all correlation results in conspiracy, but conspiracy loves correlation. Without the conspiracy part it's just a good starting point for scientific inquiry. The nuance is lost on the CO2 saturated tweeters.
- roenxi 3y ago
  > China got back to productivity faster though, and gave their population time for a vaccine to be developed and distributed. Wasn't China famously locked down long past the point where the rest of the world was back up and getting on with life? By the time we got to Omicron the vaccine appeared to be doing next to nothing and China was still locked down.
  - IIAOPSW 3y ago
    Both. China was both business as the new normal early on, but also stuck with the new normal far harder and longer than anyone else.
  - ZoomerCretin 3y ago
    China was not locked down for two years, no. A lockdown is not "Any pandemic restrictions at all", it's "You are not allowed to leave your house except for food and testing." They did not have the latter for two straight years.
  - eric-hu 3y ago
    > By the time we got to Omicron the vaccine appeared to be doing next to nothing and China was still locked down. It’s funny you say that. China disallowed their citizens from using western vaccines including Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca. Chinese citizens were only allowed to receive Chinese made vaccines. For all we know, they needed their lockdowns until so late because their own vaccines lacked efficacy in baseline protection.
  - daveguy 3y ago
    The vaccine was never doing "next to nothing" it was always very effective at keeping you from dying a suffocating death. That's one of the three big things vaccines are supposed to do -- prevent infection, prevent transmission, and reduce pathology. The conspiracy propaganda tried to make it seem like a vaccine that allows a mild case is a failure, when that is, in fact, a success.
- hising 3y ago
  Who are they?
freedude 3y ago
"Because of all the conspiracy theories" Why do you call them theories when they play out as described? Really it should be stated "Because of the government conspiracy to enact totalitarian rule..." It has been proven the government was wrong about all of their Covid predictions and the methodology for care was flawed because it ignored basic care. Many people died because the government ignored actual science and set out to squelch those that disagreed. This is exactly what our government shouldn't be.
rewfewfewfew 3y ago
>governments will be very reluctant to order a lockdown even if it's the right thing to do Under what possible circumstances will this be the right thing to do? It's already very apparent that the historically unprecedented worldwide Covid lockdowns have had a devastating effect on the prospects of the poorest in society, while seriously enriching the wealthiest (go and take a look at the Forbes rich list, and find someone who has lost money since 2020. You'll have to look very hard).

by eli 3y ago

Cthulhu_ 3y ago

It feels like (at least in my country) all the lockdowns were part of an experiment; try something else, see if it works. At some point they tried a curfew for a few weeks, it had an effect but people didn't like it and enforcement was a huge issue (naturally). The other thing is that every time a measure was effective, they would stop doing it so that the cases would go back up again. That said, as China proved, a totalitarian lockdown (where people were locked in their house) didn't work in the long run either. China got back to productivity faster though, and gave their population time for a vaccine to be developed and distributed.

bbarn 3y ago
Correlation is the mother of conspiracy. "they would stop doing it so that the cases would go back up again" is quite the statement. How about this instead: "Extreme measures to slow down cases had obvious down sides and were used as sparingly as possible, and eased up when not as necessary"?
- m3047 3y ago
  (Proven) correlation is not causation. It's correlation, meaning things are related. Causation would mean that something causes something else. Correlation, meaning things are related, means that one of them might be the cause of another, or they could all be the effects of some unrecognized / unobserved phenomenon. Correlation is the mother of conjecture; conspiracy is a bunch of people huddling in a small space breathing the same air and posting about it on twitter.
  - daveguy 3y ago
    Correlation is the mother of conspiracy. Without correlation there's no blanks to fill in with baseless conjecture. With correlation you get to jump to all the conspiratorial conclusions without any further evidence. That doesn't mean that all correlation results in conspiracy, but conspiracy loves correlation. Without the conspiracy part it's just a good starting point for scientific inquiry. The nuance is lost on the CO2 saturated tweeters.
roenxi 3y ago
> China got back to productivity faster though, and gave their population time for a vaccine to be developed and distributed. Wasn't China famously locked down long past the point where the rest of the world was back up and getting on with life? By the time we got to Omicron the vaccine appeared to be doing next to nothing and China was still locked down.
- IIAOPSW 3y ago
  Both. China was both business as the new normal early on, but also stuck with the new normal far harder and longer than anyone else.
- ZoomerCretin 3y ago
  China was not locked down for two years, no. A lockdown is not "Any pandemic restrictions at all", it's "You are not allowed to leave your house except for food and testing." They did not have the latter for two straight years.
- eric-hu 3y ago
  > By the time we got to Omicron the vaccine appeared to be doing next to nothing and China was still locked down. It’s funny you say that. China disallowed their citizens from using western vaccines including Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca. Chinese citizens were only allowed to receive Chinese made vaccines. For all we know, they needed their lockdowns until so late because their own vaccines lacked efficacy in baseline protection.
- daveguy 3y ago
  The vaccine was never doing "next to nothing" it was always very effective at keeping you from dying a suffocating death. That's one of the three big things vaccines are supposed to do -- prevent infection, prevent transmission, and reduce pathology. The conspiracy propaganda tried to make it seem like a vaccine that allows a mild case is a failure, when that is, in fact, a success.
hising 3y ago
Who are they?

freedude 3y ago

"Because of all the conspiracy theories" Why do you call them theories when they play out as described? Really it should be stated "Because of the government conspiracy to enact totalitarian rule..." It has been proven the government was wrong about all of their Covid predictions and the methodology for care was flawed because it ignored basic care. Many people died because the government ignored actual science and set out to squelch those that disagreed. This is exactly what our government shouldn't be.

rewfewfewfew 3y ago

>governments will be very reluctant to order a lockdown even if it's the right thing to do Under what possible circumstances will this be the right thing to do? It's already very apparent that the historically unprecedented worldwide Covid lockdowns have had a devastating effect on the prospects of the poorest in society, while seriously enriching the wealthiest (go and take a look at the Forbes rich list, and find someone who has lost money since 2020. You'll have to look very hard).