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An interesting article, but I can't understand why the author thinks the current football code would wither and die in quite the way he proposes when there are

An interesting article, but I can't understand why the author thinks the current football code would wither and die in quite the way he proposes when there are other codes with much better safety records and to which they could transition relatively easily; why would the asset holders voluntarily wind up rather than trying to maximise their returns? * Rugby Union / Rugby League. USA already has a relatively decent national Rugby Union side - certainly not top drawer, but able to compete at World Cup level. The facilities could be relatively easily converted and while there are certainly game subtleties that are very different (a complete ban on forward passes, for example), it'd likely be an easier player transition than to soccer or basketball. * International Rules Football. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_rules_football http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_rules_football) An existing hybrid of Gaelic football (for which I'd be astonished if there weren't east coast teams...) and Aussie Rules Football. Again, American teams exist, the pitches would be relatively easily converted, the skills are based around ball carrying and throwing... Universities make too much money from football to just kill it. Too many large franchises make enormous sums from it, too many towns have it as a significant percentage of GDP. No transition to a new code would ever be easy but, if the writing was on the wall, the financial incentive for (say) one of the large conferences to give 3 years notice of transition to a new code in preference seem enormous in comparison with simply shuttering. (Now, speaking as a Brit sports fan, if North America could only switch from Baseball to T20 Cricket then.... ;-))

bugsbunnyak 15y ago
There are probably too many vested interests for that to happen from the top down. One issue the article raises is that the decline would be mostly from the bottom-up as insurance cost and perceived risk respectively diminish high school leagues, and participation. This decline would occur over a long enough timeline that, by the time such a drastic action could be contemplated, football would have transitioned from a cultural institution to an also-ran (as the current soccer and rugby leagues).
- eftpotrm 15y ago
  Probably, but.... Insurance and incidents of the sort outlined could push a turnaround in 2-3 years, quite easily IMHO. Insurance changes could make it extremely expensive in the space of a single year if they're on annual policies. If school boards are given the sudden option of running football at a substantial loss, pulling athletics programmes altogether and losing their value while mothballing their assets or trying to switch code, I'd bet on the latter. Instinctively the elephant in the room is the different college conferences. Varied enough to go in different ways if push came to shove, big enough that they could impose a code change on their feeder systems. Plus, a big enough bottom-line contributor that if the numbers turned around fast enough I suspect administrators would try a roll of the dice rather than a mothballing. (And I still want to see a greater uptake of cricket! :-))
  - philwelch 15y ago
    The problem with cricket is, first, that it's absolutely beyond most Americans' comprehension, and second, that we already have an incomprehensible sport that involves throwing a ball and hitting it with a stick.
    - eftpotrm 15y ago
      Oh, I know, I just think it's more fun than Baseball :-) ISTR that MLB had a lock-out a while back which ended up with Cricket filling some of the broadcast slots. Speaking as a cricket fan with any luck they can similarly shoot themselves in the foot in the future and T20, as a faster form of the game, can develop a foothold. One has to have dreams! (Honestly, I've tried watching baseball and, well, incomprehensible covered it well. Trying to work out what was and wasn't a strike a) confused and b) bored me, what with the slowing effect on the game. Then, they keep doing hits which get easily stopped and they're out before even making first base! Gimme T20 every day.)

bugsbunnyak 15y ago

There are probably too many vested interests for that to happen from the top down. One issue the article raises is that the decline would be mostly from the bottom-up as insurance cost and perceived risk respectively diminish high school leagues, and participation. This decline would occur over a long enough timeline that, by the time such a drastic action could be contemplated, football would have transitioned from a cultural institution to an also-ran (as the current soccer and rugby leagues).

eftpotrm 15y ago
Probably, but.... Insurance and incidents of the sort outlined could push a turnaround in 2-3 years, quite easily IMHO. Insurance changes could make it extremely expensive in the space of a single year if they're on annual policies. If school boards are given the sudden option of running football at a substantial loss, pulling athletics programmes altogether and losing their value while mothballing their assets or trying to switch code, I'd bet on the latter. Instinctively the elephant in the room is the different college conferences. Varied enough to go in different ways if push came to shove, big enough that they could impose a code change on their feeder systems. Plus, a big enough bottom-line contributor that if the numbers turned around fast enough I suspect administrators would try a roll of the dice rather than a mothballing. (And I still want to see a greater uptake of cricket! :-))
- philwelch 15y ago
  The problem with cricket is, first, that it's absolutely beyond most Americans' comprehension, and second, that we already have an incomprehensible sport that involves throwing a ball and hitting it with a stick.
  - eftpotrm 15y ago
    Oh, I know, I just think it's more fun than Baseball :-) ISTR that MLB had a lock-out a while back which ended up with Cricket filling some of the broadcast slots. Speaking as a cricket fan with any luck they can similarly shoot themselves in the foot in the future and T20, as a faster form of the game, can develop a foothold. One has to have dreams! (Honestly, I've tried watching baseball and, well, incomprehensible covered it well. Trying to work out what was and wasn't a strike a) confused and b) bored me, what with the slowing effect on the game. Then, they keep doing hits which get easily stopped and they're out before even making first base! Gimme T20 every day.)