6 ms·

If all large tech employers play follow the leader then it's not natural reversion, it's a textbook example of tacit oligopoly coordination.

by jhp123 3y ago

DiggyJohnson 3y ago
Or the pattern is due to a common cause between the high tech firms, and we know what that common cause is: they overhired 2020-2022.
- jhp123 3y ago
  Come on. If Google broke ranks and started aggressively poaching people for GCP and going after market share, Amazon would realize in about 5 seconds that it hadn't "overhired" for absurdly-profitable AWS after all. These firms have colluded to drive down wages before (the "Techtopus" case), a fact that we know because they were stupid enough to put it in writing. This time there's no proof and may be no explicit agreement, but a tiger doesn't change their stripes.
  - abhorrence 3y ago
    The way most of these companies are colluding now is by using third party firms that "aggregate industry salary information". So basically company X provides their data, pays some dollars, and get access to what other companies in their "peer set" are paying for different types of levels/experience. Reminds me a lot of the schemes companies will sometimes use to do bribes in other countries -- paying a third party consultancy who they had "no possible way of knowing that they were actually just bribing people".
- oblio 3y ago
  Look at their revenues in 2019 and in 2023. Except for Failed Metaverse Inc, everyone else has grown revenue proportionally and profits decent enough.
  - shagie 3y ago
    In 2019, Microsoft had about 150k people. Most recently, they have 221k. And while last year was potentially quite good, that isn't the projection. https://i.imgur.com/gUz6AlW.png https://i.imgur.com/gUz6AlW.png Employees went up significantly: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+employee+count%29 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+employee+c... Revenue leveled off: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+revenue%29 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+revenue%29 Profits are on a downward slope now: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+profits%29 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+profits%29 Yes, they're 50% greater than they were in 2019. The staffing is at about 1.5x what it was in 2019 too. So, crystal ball time - what will revenue be a year from now? Will the profit per employee be lower than it was in 2019? https://imgur.com/6QykALS https://imgur.com/6QykALS And if the answer is no, should Microsoft lay people off or hold off on salary increases?
    - oblio 3y ago
      Oh noes! The tragedy! Their revenue and profit per employee will be at their highest points for every year until at least 2020! Who could ever bear that???

If all large tech employers play follow the leader then it's not natural reversion, it's a textbook example of tacit oligopoly coordination.

by jhp123 3y ago

If all large tech employers play follow the leader then it's not natural reversion, it's a textbook example of tacit oligopoly coordination.

DiggyJohnson 3y ago

Or the pattern is due to a common cause between the high tech firms, and we know what that common cause is: they overhired 2020-2022.

jhp123 3y ago
Come on. If Google broke ranks and started aggressively poaching people for GCP and going after market share, Amazon would realize in about 5 seconds that it hadn't "overhired" for absurdly-profitable AWS after all. These firms have colluded to drive down wages before (the "Techtopus" case), a fact that we know because they were stupid enough to put it in writing. This time there's no proof and may be no explicit agreement, but a tiger doesn't change their stripes.
- abhorrence 3y ago
  The way most of these companies are colluding now is by using third party firms that "aggregate industry salary information". So basically company X provides their data, pays some dollars, and get access to what other companies in their "peer set" are paying for different types of levels/experience. Reminds me a lot of the schemes companies will sometimes use to do bribes in other countries -- paying a third party consultancy who they had "no possible way of knowing that they were actually just bribing people".
oblio 3y ago
Look at their revenues in 2019 and in 2023. Except for Failed Metaverse Inc, everyone else has grown revenue proportionally and profits decent enough.
- shagie 3y ago
  In 2019, Microsoft had about 150k people. Most recently, they have 221k. And while last year was potentially quite good, that isn't the projection. https://i.imgur.com/gUz6AlW.png https://i.imgur.com/gUz6AlW.png Employees went up significantly: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+employee+count%29 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+employee+c... Revenue leveled off: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+revenue%29 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+revenue%29 Profits are on a downward slope now: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+profits%29 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28Microsoft+profits%29 Yes, they're 50% greater than they were in 2019. The staffing is at about 1.5x what it was in 2019 too. So, crystal ball time - what will revenue be a year from now? Will the profit per employee be lower than it was in 2019? https://imgur.com/6QykALS https://imgur.com/6QykALS And if the answer is no, should Microsoft lay people off or hold off on salary increases?
  - oblio 3y ago
    Oh noes! The tragedy! Their revenue and profit per employee will be at their highest points for every year until at least 2020! Who could ever bear that???