3 ms·

> The Russians saw it coming, they were doing exercises and whatnot years in advance of the asset seizures. You're trying to pretend that causality goes the wr

> The Russians saw it coming, they were doing exercises and whatnot years in advance of the asset seizures. You're trying to pretend that causality goes the wrong way around. The invasion of Ukraine caused the asset seizures.

stareatgoats 3y ago
Well actually, the collective reaction of the west, including the virtual exclusion of Russia from all western economic activity could not have come as a surprise to Putin. This is in fact the only sense I can make of the overt aggression towards Ukraine: Putin and his clique already held the short end of the stick after Maidan, Georgia, Syria etc: i.e. the west were not going to make life easy for him anyway, so they devise a clean cut, a return to the cold war that they all were so familiar with - and with an expectation that the west would overstretch on armaments and financial crisis. This theory is supported by the obvious strategic investment in an alternative international currency that has been building for a long time - efforts that have been more fruitful after the invasion if anything - also possibly already predicted. But I'm not sure. It might be crediting them with more brains than they have.
- sdfghswe 3y ago
  I don't disagree with you. But consider this. The way you're putting is "Russia did X therefore they knew (meaning predicted/guessed) that Y was gonna happen". I don't disagree. However, the other person said "Russia saw it coming, it was doing X before Y". This inverts the causality because it suggests that Y was gonna happen regardless, and as a consequence they started X ahead of time. Russia wants to be a superpower, but somehow is always the victim.
  - roenxi 3y ago
    I don't think the relation is all that strong. The US wasn't especially sanctioned after Iraq for example. As far as I know no US assets were frozen and seized. Although, to be fair, maybe people were sanctioning them and nobody noticed because the US is pretty robust. Stealing stuff isn't a usual global response to unjust wars. The US was looking for a good excuse, and it got one. But I doubt there was a rule on the book saying that they were going to wipe their owings to Russia if the Ukraine was invaded. It isn't like Ukraine is in NATO or has some sort of defensive treaty with the US, all the activity is their initiative because they want to give Russia a black eye/topple Putin.

stareatgoats 3y ago

Well actually, the collective reaction of the west, including the virtual exclusion of Russia from all western economic activity could not have come as a surprise to Putin. This is in fact the only sense I can make of the overt aggression towards Ukraine: Putin and his clique already held the short end of the stick after Maidan, Georgia, Syria etc: i.e. the west were not going to make life easy for him anyway, so they devise a clean cut, a return to the cold war that they all were so familiar with - and with an expectation that the west would overstretch on armaments and financial crisis. This theory is supported by the obvious strategic investment in an alternative international currency that has been building for a long time - efforts that have been more fruitful after the invasion if anything - also possibly already predicted. But I'm not sure. It might be crediting them with more brains than they have.

sdfghswe 3y ago
I don't disagree with you. But consider this. The way you're putting is "Russia did X therefore they knew (meaning predicted/guessed) that Y was gonna happen". I don't disagree. However, the other person said "Russia saw it coming, it was doing X before Y". This inverts the causality because it suggests that Y was gonna happen regardless, and as a consequence they started X ahead of time. Russia wants to be a superpower, but somehow is always the victim.
- roenxi 3y ago
  I don't think the relation is all that strong. The US wasn't especially sanctioned after Iraq for example. As far as I know no US assets were frozen and seized. Although, to be fair, maybe people were sanctioning them and nobody noticed because the US is pretty robust. Stealing stuff isn't a usual global response to unjust wars. The US was looking for a good excuse, and it got one. But I doubt there was a rule on the book saying that they were going to wipe their owings to Russia if the Ukraine was invaded. It isn't like Ukraine is in NATO or has some sort of defensive treaty with the US, all the activity is their initiative because they want to give Russia a black eye/topple Putin.