The most likely path in 2023: * Politicians play chicken, waiting until the last possible moment * The markets get upset in the meantime and this impacts US T

The most likely path in 2023: * Politicians play chicken, waiting until the last possible moment * The markets get upset in the meantime and this impacts US Treasury bond prices * Eventually the limit is raised, right before the deadline The estimated deadline is approximately mid August, though could be somewhere between June and early September. In the long term, either we need something that provides massive growth (increased tax revenues, reduced welfare spending), or we'll default. A default in 2023 is not impossible, though is definitely unlikely.