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> The fourth default was the 1971 breaking of the U.S. government’s commitment to redeem dollars held by foreign governments for gold under the Bretton Woods Ag

> The fourth default was the 1971 breaking of the U.S. government’s commitment to redeem dollars held by foreign governments for gold under the Bretton Woods Agreement. Bretton Woods is a fascinating topic on its own. Accidental Superpower is a good read that dives in a little, but isn't focused specifically on it. I can't resist bringing up that book because in one of the later chapters, it predicted the invasion of Ukraine, IIRC, down to the month.

birdyrooster 4y ago
The past Bretton Woods system and US currency seemed to change from a process which can converting notes into precious metals into a process which can convert notes into military hardware and oil. Is there a name for this?
- aristus 4y ago
  The "petrodollar". But more fundamentally the bit of Bretton Woods that survived was the deal that the United States would guarantee the security of global trade (that's the Navy's real mission) in exchange for a discount on imports. Unlinking from gold only cemented their position. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency
- ragnot 4y ago
  Some people call it the petrodollar others call it American hegemony.
SapporoChris 4y ago
The conflict has been going on since 2014. I'm interested in what was actually predicted.
- martzy13 4y ago
  It's an interesting book and I think it's worth a read. The author, Peter Zeihan, does a good job of melding geography, demographics, energy, and food supply to come up with a deterministic approach to geo-politics. I have no clue how accurate it is, but it's a fun mental algorithm for simplifying complex and nuanced situations. His prediction, and I'm paraphrasing here, was that Russian Demographics are more or less in free fall. Every year after ~2020 the Russians have less and less fighting age men and their army will be weaker and weaker. Additionally, because most of populated Russia is a flat plane, they have no geographic barriers to protect their cities. Therefore they need to forward position their troops in order to feel secure. So his assertion, was that based on previous Russian military conflicts, Ukraine was the next most likely target, and that if Russia wanted to do anything, they'd have to do something sometime earlier on in this decade. Otherwise they can't field an army of significant size to forward position their troops.
  - InCityDreams 4y ago
    The Russians have considerably fewer fighting age men...less every day, now it would appear. Amazing logic. But, I guess p didn't expect such a drubbing.
  - monetus 4y ago
    Zeihen currently has a pretty active YouTube channel for anyone curious, though I imagine his older book may be more even keeled.
  - KptMarchewa 4y ago
    >Additionally, because most of populated Russia is a flat plane, they have no geographic barriers to protect their cities. Therefore they need to forward position their troops in order to feel secure. This is very weird argument that smells of taking russian propaganda on face value. There's no "geographical barrier" other than what, hundreds of kilometers of land? They don't need "forward position". Closest point from Ukraine to Moscow is barely less than from Latvia, and St Pete is pretty much on NATO border, yet somehow... land road to Crimea makes them feel "secure"? The real answer is that there is no "feeling insecure" at all other than in propaganda, and invasion of Ukraine is purely for maintaining the empire. There can be no "russian world" country that is outside of russia and prospers.

birdyrooster 4y ago

The past Bretton Woods system and US currency seemed to change from a process which can converting notes into precious metals into a process which can convert notes into military hardware and oil. Is there a name for this?

aristus 4y ago
The "petrodollar". But more fundamentally the bit of Bretton Woods that survived was the deal that the United States would guarantee the security of global trade (that's the Navy's real mission) in exchange for a discount on imports. Unlinking from gold only cemented their position. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency
ragnot 4y ago
Some people call it the petrodollar others call it American hegemony.

SapporoChris 4y ago

The conflict has been going on since 2014. I'm interested in what was actually predicted.

martzy13 4y ago
It's an interesting book and I think it's worth a read. The author, Peter Zeihan, does a good job of melding geography, demographics, energy, and food supply to come up with a deterministic approach to geo-politics. I have no clue how accurate it is, but it's a fun mental algorithm for simplifying complex and nuanced situations. His prediction, and I'm paraphrasing here, was that Russian Demographics are more or less in free fall. Every year after ~2020 the Russians have less and less fighting age men and their army will be weaker and weaker. Additionally, because most of populated Russia is a flat plane, they have no geographic barriers to protect their cities. Therefore they need to forward position their troops in order to feel secure. So his assertion, was that based on previous Russian military conflicts, Ukraine was the next most likely target, and that if Russia wanted to do anything, they'd have to do something sometime earlier on in this decade. Otherwise they can't field an army of significant size to forward position their troops.
- InCityDreams 4y ago
  The Russians have considerably fewer fighting age men...less every day, now it would appear. Amazing logic. But, I guess p didn't expect such a drubbing.
- monetus 4y ago
  Zeihen currently has a pretty active YouTube channel for anyone curious, though I imagine his older book may be more even keeled.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  >Additionally, because most of populated Russia is a flat plane, they have no geographic barriers to protect their cities. Therefore they need to forward position their troops in order to feel secure. This is very weird argument that smells of taking russian propaganda on face value. There's no "geographical barrier" other than what, hundreds of kilometers of land? They don't need "forward position". Closest point from Ukraine to Moscow is barely less than from Latvia, and St Pete is pretty much on NATO border, yet somehow... land road to Crimea makes them feel "secure"? The real answer is that there is no "feeling insecure" at all other than in propaganda, and invasion of Ukraine is purely for maintaining the empire. There can be no "russian world" country that is outside of russia and prospers.