>5% for about 5 years if Fed does everything right. In light of recent history, I'd say a couple of years more. Historically, ZIRP has been the exception and no

>5% for about 5 years if Fed does everything right. In light of recent history, I'd say a couple of years more. Historically, ZIRP has been the exception and not the rule in the world of economics and finance. Peter Zeihan explains it, here time 37:30 https://youtu.be/DXtScb_IZdg https://youtu.be/DXtScb_IZdg In short: Baby Boomers are retiring, and taking their money with them, and thus with them the largest source of finance in the USA. That means the cost of capital will go up. Independently of what the Fed does, the war, china or covid. One presentation from 2018, time 18 or 19 minutes, here https://youtu.be/u0eJK4Avk2M https://youtu.be/u0eJK4Avk2M "The cost of borrowing will go by a factor of five"