2 ms·
I believe that you are missing a number of dimensions involved with the transmissibility when comparing the population and the population density which also fac
by shagie 4y ago
I believe that you are missing a number of dimensions involved with the transmissibility when comparing the population and the population density which also factor in.
It would be akin to comparing the mortality rate for Vermont and New York (which hold the economic level relatively constant).
Vermont was 15.8/100,000 people while New York was 18.5/100,000.
Things like how much international travel and how much intra-region travel? How many cases were there before vaccination was possible?
Changing this to other units and using New York City in March of 2020 - living in NYC was 50 micromorts / day based on the excess deaths. So, each day have everyone in NYC go skydiving (8 micromorts per jump) 6 times and you'll have some people die from that... about 24,000 over the course of a month (data from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-risk-of-covid-19-in-perspective.html?unlocked_article_code=iTwCMboaK-EuZZ-Fvy58QyazipwCDaBdUniHUKVKsO8E3Wup0D9uDiH1rXg3iTQ7KcWxiaNMabI_DyZTXKOEw6JZdLZD7HOP-GiAOvvOAJ3pwgiNJ1tevIOLxbnXuySiSLH-B_SFqyo0I0KZyDlFnxD8lZrXtnDNhxTY-jx3OL7DCl-2moLhW7g6KBn4DG-eylIb9LsUBIJI3_tEPUN5CgUbxHAmp7iS2UMsQNoK0XMPqI2N3JwHY1ujqsIDmYY0S0xszeP99DEXmQZHm3zV5oFYCBxqCqcKaY9Wbn72afiYkGjLiq55QOlp8gU66Yg08jxbHtdybRq6ngPoiDICBUFMJhuclrc5WRTcCdjo-1xIiAUOhC2u&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-ris... ). And that was with mitigation efforts in place.
I am not sure that it is fair to do a one dimensional "Bolivia was 0.7% mortality and UK was 0.3% mortality" because Covid hit at different times and had different amounts of transmissibility because of the different population densities which in turn impacted the amount that hospitals were able to care for people.