4 ms·

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

SeanAnderson 3y ago
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-metro-areas-have-fared-better-in-the-covid-19-rebound/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines taxation. Is that the wrong way to be looking at things? (EDIT: these numbers are old, my bad!)
- CydeWeys 3y ago
  Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuting into the office 5 days a week anymore? Don't buy an office building and you'll be good.
  - electriclove 3y ago
    How do you get around? Are the subways safe for tourists, families, etc?
    - CydeWeys 3y ago
      I bike and walk most places, but I'm perfectly fine taking the subway for longer distances. Even that question itself sounds like it's out of the past from three decades ago.
  - SeanAnderson 3y ago
    No, I am not planning on owning commercial, but I am interested in avoiding having taxes raised on me to fill a budget deficit. Taxes on commercial real estate generate a significant amount of revenue, commercial rental agreements are usually ~5-7 years, and so, at least in SF, there is a looming wave of devaluations which has yet to be realized. The city already has an estimated 800M budget shortfall without assuming commercial real estate devalues by 50%. When that happens the only quick fix is to bleed money from the populace. If commercial buildings aren't being used in NY then this will also occur there.
    - CydeWeys 3y ago
      I think you're being too speculative here. If you're really trying to minimize paying taxes, then you should be moving to a state with no income tax, don't buy property there (because states with no income tax tend to make up for it with high property taxes), and don't live in a city because cities will have local taxes. But you move to NYC, you do so because NYC is awesome and living here is great. I wouldn't pay less taxes to live in the middle of nowhere.
      - SeanAnderson 3y ago
        Yeah, I think you're right. Thanks for the feedback. :)
      - sangnoir 3y ago
        > ... you should be moving to a state with no income tax, don't buy property there (because states with no income tax tend to make up for it with high property taxes) Remember not to rent too, otherwise landlords would passthrough the high property to you.
        CydeWeys 3y ago
        This isn't true in many places for lots of reasons. E.g. in California the owner could easily have grandfathered-in low property tax thanks to Prop 13, that you as a new housing purchaser couldn't benefit from. Or there could be NY-style rent regulation that controls the allowable rental price and doesn't take property tax into consideration at all. Or it could simply be that property taxes go up in a neighborhood (which you'd have to pay if you owned) but that rents do not, for whatever reason; this happens all the time. As a renter, all you care about is what the rent is. If the rent is good, then you're good. Property tax is very much NOT priced into buying a property, and is an ongoing expense to worry about that moves in way that rent does not.
  - asah 3y ago
    Can confirm: packed streets, packed theaters, restaurants, etc - even the subway is recovering. NYC is going great aside from older, overpriced midtown buildings that are failing to lease. For (way) more details, I recommend Jonathan Miller's blog: https://millersamuel.com/blog/ https://millersamuel.com/blog/
- woodruffw 3y ago
  Those numbers are almost a year old; NYC is expecting a significant rise in tourists[1] and for business travel numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels[2]. To my annoyance, rent has continued to rise as well. [1]: https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-million-tourists-2023 https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-milli... [2]: https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-2022 https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-...
- gnopgnip 3y ago
  Because of prop 13 how much does the value of commercial real estate effect taxation?
warning26 3y ago
Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.
- bubblethink 3y ago
  Right call for whom ? What's it got to do with backbone if it is just not in anyone (except landlords') interest to mandate RTO ?
  - warning26 3y ago
    I'd argue that people having to leave their house every day is better for society as a whole, even if it feels a bit inconvenient. Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO.
    - dumbotron 3y ago
      > Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO. Sounds like a Black Mirror episode.
- Ancalagon 3y ago
  Is "backbone" the new moniker for "iron fist"?
- surgical_fire 3y ago
  lol people would just move jobs to keep working remote. That's the beauty of working in tech. There's a lot of companies to move over to. Finance is a lot more restricted.
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    And, interestingly enough, an increasing number of people have moved to NYC to work remotely from here. Living in NYC is a legitimate attraction in its own right, and is appealing to a lot of people even if they're not working here.
jeffbee 3y ago
This problem is not at all unique to SF. According to Cushman & Wakefield, Austin has 23% vacant offices, Manhattan has 23%, Brooklyn 24%, and SF has 25%, same as Minneapolis and Chicago, while Houston has 26% vacant. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/us-office-marketbeat-reports https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/u...
- CydeWeys 3y ago
  Unless you are the owner/lessor of commercial real estate, why does this matter? NYC is happening these days, even if not everyone is going back to the office every day. They're still here in their homes (which are renting out for record high rates) and going about their daily lives in the city, which is absolutely packed.
  - jeffbee 3y ago
    But downtown SF has always been like a scene out of "Night of the Comet" compared to NY.
    - CydeWeys 3y ago
      Look, I'm not gonna argue with you that NYC has always been better than SF (it obviously has), but post-pandemic now the difference is even more stark. NYC's economy is much more diverse than SF's, and also has much more housing within city limits, to the point that it hasn't suffered nearly as much from the pandemic, and indeed right now is booming whereas SF is withering.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        Ehn, SF is returning to its pre-2010 roots (heck, even the population in SF has fallen to the same level as it was in the 2000s). The entire sofrware+hardware industry before the 2010s was south of Redwood Shores and the biotech industry was always situated in northern San Mateo County. Before the 2010s, SF was primarily a hub for the Northern California legal+investment banking industries, both of which cratered during the GFC. There's a reason why "FiDi" is called that - SF used to be the Wall Street of the West until the GFC, and most private sector white collar jobs in the city back then were legal and finance related.
RC_ITR 3y ago
The problem everyone seems to miss is that SF is one of the few places that had a recession due to COVID (not necessarily a GDP recessions, but definitely a weak businesses closed en masse recession) and a lot of other places (illogically) boomed during COVID. Given recent history (Phoenix MSA’s 2011 GDP was lower than 2007 GDP, whereas SF never went below 2007 levels), it’s not unreasonable to think that other cities are simply in artificial bubbles from the $3tn that was given to consumers over the past 3 years.
- foobiekr 3y ago
  The recession was caused by fake tech startups built on ZIRP policies running into IPO difficulties after a bunch of them dumped on the market.

SeanAnderson 3y ago

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-metro-areas-have-fared-better-in-the-covid-19-rebound/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines taxation. Is that the wrong way to be looking at things? (EDIT: these numbers are old, my bad!)

CydeWeys 3y ago
Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuting into the office 5 days a week anymore? Don't buy an office building and you'll be good.
- electriclove 3y ago
  How do you get around? Are the subways safe for tourists, families, etc?
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    I bike and walk most places, but I'm perfectly fine taking the subway for longer distances. Even that question itself sounds like it's out of the past from three decades ago.
- SeanAnderson 3y ago
  No, I am not planning on owning commercial, but I am interested in avoiding having taxes raised on me to fill a budget deficit. Taxes on commercial real estate generate a significant amount of revenue, commercial rental agreements are usually ~5-7 years, and so, at least in SF, there is a looming wave of devaluations which has yet to be realized. The city already has an estimated 800M budget shortfall without assuming commercial real estate devalues by 50%. When that happens the only quick fix is to bleed money from the populace. If commercial buildings aren't being used in NY then this will also occur there.
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    I think you're being too speculative here. If you're really trying to minimize paying taxes, then you should be moving to a state with no income tax, don't buy property there (because states with no income tax tend to make up for it with high property taxes), and don't live in a city because cities will have local taxes. But you move to NYC, you do so because NYC is awesome and living here is great. I wouldn't pay less taxes to live in the middle of nowhere.
    - SeanAnderson 3y ago
      Yeah, I think you're right. Thanks for the feedback. :)
    - sangnoir 3y ago
      > ... you should be moving to a state with no income tax, don't buy property there (because states with no income tax tend to make up for it with high property taxes) Remember not to rent too, otherwise landlords would passthrough the high property to you.
      - CydeWeys 3y ago
        This isn't true in many places for lots of reasons. E.g. in California the owner could easily have grandfathered-in low property tax thanks to Prop 13, that you as a new housing purchaser couldn't benefit from. Or there could be NY-style rent regulation that controls the allowable rental price and doesn't take property tax into consideration at all. Or it could simply be that property taxes go up in a neighborhood (which you'd have to pay if you owned) but that rents do not, for whatever reason; this happens all the time. As a renter, all you care about is what the rent is. If the rent is good, then you're good. Property tax is very much NOT priced into buying a property, and is an ongoing expense to worry about that moves in way that rent does not.
- asah 3y ago
  Can confirm: packed streets, packed theaters, restaurants, etc - even the subway is recovering. NYC is going great aside from older, overpriced midtown buildings that are failing to lease. For (way) more details, I recommend Jonathan Miller's blog: https://millersamuel.com/blog/ https://millersamuel.com/blog/
woodruffw 3y ago
Those numbers are almost a year old; NYC is expecting a significant rise in tourists[1] and for business travel numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels[2]. To my annoyance, rent has continued to rise as well. [1]: https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-million-tourists-2023 https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-milli... [2]: https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-2022 https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-...
gnopgnip 3y ago
Because of prop 13 how much does the value of commercial real estate effect taxation?

warning26 3y ago

Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.

bubblethink 3y ago
Right call for whom ? What's it got to do with backbone if it is just not in anyone (except landlords') interest to mandate RTO ?
- warning26 3y ago
  I'd argue that people having to leave their house every day is better for society as a whole, even if it feels a bit inconvenient. Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO.
  - dumbotron 3y ago
    > Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO. Sounds like a Black Mirror episode.
Ancalagon 3y ago
Is "backbone" the new moniker for "iron fist"?
surgical_fire 3y ago
lol people would just move jobs to keep working remote. That's the beauty of working in tech. There's a lot of companies to move over to. Finance is a lot more restricted.
- CydeWeys 3y ago
  And, interestingly enough, an increasing number of people have moved to NYC to work remotely from here. Living in NYC is a legitimate attraction in its own right, and is appealing to a lot of people even if they're not working here.

jeffbee 3y ago

This problem is not at all unique to SF. According to Cushman & Wakefield, Austin has 23% vacant offices, Manhattan has 23%, Brooklyn 24%, and SF has 25%, same as Minneapolis and Chicago, while Houston has 26% vacant. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/us-office-marketbeat-reports https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/u...

CydeWeys 3y ago
Unless you are the owner/lessor of commercial real estate, why does this matter? NYC is happening these days, even if not everyone is going back to the office every day. They're still here in their homes (which are renting out for record high rates) and going about their daily lives in the city, which is absolutely packed.
- jeffbee 3y ago
  But downtown SF has always been like a scene out of "Night of the Comet" compared to NY.
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    Look, I'm not gonna argue with you that NYC has always been better than SF (it obviously has), but post-pandemic now the difference is even more stark. NYC's economy is much more diverse than SF's, and also has much more housing within city limits, to the point that it hasn't suffered nearly as much from the pandemic, and indeed right now is booming whereas SF is withering.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      Ehn, SF is returning to its pre-2010 roots (heck, even the population in SF has fallen to the same level as it was in the 2000s). The entire sofrware+hardware industry before the 2010s was south of Redwood Shores and the biotech industry was always situated in northern San Mateo County. Before the 2010s, SF was primarily a hub for the Northern California legal+investment banking industries, both of which cratered during the GFC. There's a reason why "FiDi" is called that - SF used to be the Wall Street of the West until the GFC, and most private sector white collar jobs in the city back then were legal and finance related.

RC_ITR 3y ago

The problem everyone seems to miss is that SF is one of the few places that had a recession due to COVID (not necessarily a GDP recessions, but definitely a weak businesses closed en masse recession) and a lot of other places (illogically) boomed during COVID. Given recent history (Phoenix MSA’s 2011 GDP was lower than 2007 GDP, whereas SF never went below 2007 levels), it’s not unreasonable to think that other cities are simply in artificial bubbles from the $3tn that was given to consumers over the past 3 years.

foobiekr 3y ago
The recession was caused by fake tech startups built on ZIRP policies running into IPO difficulties after a bunch of them dumped on the market.