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> the cost of launching a scope is not the bottleneck. Starship isn't just about price, but also fairing volume. And fairing volume is one of the major factors

> the cost of launching a scope is not the bottleneck. Starship isn't just about price, but also fairing volume. And fairing volume is one of the major factors that drives telescope design. It's even possible that SpaceX would do a limited run hammerhead fairing for the right price.

cubefox 3y ago
Not sure a larger fairing would be compatible with the current tower. Though they could use landing legs, then it doesn't have to be caught mid flight.
- nordsieck 3y ago
  > Not sure a larger fairing would be compatible with the current tower. I'd imagine that a hammerhead fairing would mean an expended 2nd stage. There's just too much custom work that would have to be done (for example with the heat shield) to really make it work. But if the cost is reasonable (I'm guessing ~$25 million for an upper stage), that isn't a bad price to pay to get access to a 12m fairing.
  - cubefox 3y ago
    I think 25 million USD is too optimistic, since the Starship upper stage has six raptor engines, and the Falcon 9 upper stage has only one Merlin engine, but a launch price of around 60 million US dollars. But NASA would pay much more than that if it means they can launch a telescope with a big mirror that doesn't need to be folded in. The main problem I see is that they would likely also have to pay for the entire development of the new upper stage, which would be much higher than the pure launch cost. Since NASA already has JWST, I'm not sure they have much interest in a big new space telescope currently. Other than that, it's not clear what a super large payload fairing would be required for.
    - nordsieck 3y ago
      > The main problem I see is that they would likely also have to pay for the entire development of the new upper stage I don't see why they'd need to do a full 2nd stage. I'm sure a limited run fairing (especially a complicated one like a hammerhead) will be expensive - certainly quite a bit more than the $5 million per unit cost of the Falcon fairings. But ultimately a fairing just isn't that complicated, and SpaceX has a lot of experience with them.
      - cubefox 3y ago
        Well, the aerodynamics are different and the launch abort system would probably have to be somewhat different too. The structural integrity could also be quite different. Of course it won't be a completely new upper stage, as it is just a modification, but a few test launches are probably required.
  - dylan604 3y ago
    >I'm guessing ~$25 million for an upper stage that'll be initial cost submitted. once it is approved and work begins, that number will double, triple, or more before it is completed.
    - signatoremo 3y ago
      NASA has only awarded SpaceX fixed cost contracts, never cost plus — whether it’s COTS, Crew Dragon or HLS. Same deal with US Air Force. It’s amazing how wrong facts are asserted with absolute certainty here on HN.
      - dylan604 3y ago
        SpaceX is just the truck to carry the payload that is built by someone else. It’s the payload that always goes over budget. Facts are facts
        signatoremo 3y ago
        > I’m guessing ~$25 million for an upper stage. That was what you responded to. Since when the upper stage is the payload? Which facts are you asserting?

cubefox 3y ago

Not sure a larger fairing would be compatible with the current tower. Though they could use landing legs, then it doesn't have to be caught mid flight.

nordsieck 3y ago
> Not sure a larger fairing would be compatible with the current tower. I'd imagine that a hammerhead fairing would mean an expended 2nd stage. There's just too much custom work that would have to be done (for example with the heat shield) to really make it work. But if the cost is reasonable (I'm guessing ~$25 million for an upper stage), that isn't a bad price to pay to get access to a 12m fairing.
- cubefox 3y ago
  I think 25 million USD is too optimistic, since the Starship upper stage has six raptor engines, and the Falcon 9 upper stage has only one Merlin engine, but a launch price of around 60 million US dollars. But NASA would pay much more than that if it means they can launch a telescope with a big mirror that doesn't need to be folded in. The main problem I see is that they would likely also have to pay for the entire development of the new upper stage, which would be much higher than the pure launch cost. Since NASA already has JWST, I'm not sure they have much interest in a big new space telescope currently. Other than that, it's not clear what a super large payload fairing would be required for.
  - nordsieck 3y ago
    > The main problem I see is that they would likely also have to pay for the entire development of the new upper stage I don't see why they'd need to do a full 2nd stage. I'm sure a limited run fairing (especially a complicated one like a hammerhead) will be expensive - certainly quite a bit more than the $5 million per unit cost of the Falcon fairings. But ultimately a fairing just isn't that complicated, and SpaceX has a lot of experience with them.
    - cubefox 3y ago
      Well, the aerodynamics are different and the launch abort system would probably have to be somewhat different too. The structural integrity could also be quite different. Of course it won't be a completely new upper stage, as it is just a modification, but a few test launches are probably required.
- dylan604 3y ago
  >I'm guessing ~$25 million for an upper stage that'll be initial cost submitted. once it is approved and work begins, that number will double, triple, or more before it is completed.
  - signatoremo 3y ago
    NASA has only awarded SpaceX fixed cost contracts, never cost plus — whether it’s COTS, Crew Dragon or HLS. Same deal with US Air Force. It’s amazing how wrong facts are asserted with absolute certainty here on HN.
    - dylan604 3y ago
      SpaceX is just the truck to carry the payload that is built by someone else. It’s the payload that always goes over budget. Facts are facts
      - signatoremo 3y ago
        > I’m guessing ~$25 million for an upper stage. That was what you responded to. Since when the upper stage is the payload? Which facts are you asserting?