This touches on something I've been mulling for a while when I read twitter. There's an entire ecosystem of self-proclaimed successful entrepreneurs who parlay

This touches on something I've been mulling for a while when I read twitter. There's an entire ecosystem of self-proclaimed successful entrepreneurs who parlay that into various fabulous claims. But for me it's always been difficult to isolate luck. In the early days of facebook there were a dozen social media companies that could have become The Future, and there's probably hundreds of people who were around early enough that if they'd been on the winning team they'd have had atleast tens of millions of dollars to show for it. Did they make the difference between Facebook being the winning platform? Maybe? Probably not. Atleast not everyone at facebook in the early days could have been the difference between facebook being a billion dollar behemoth or not. So it seems to me there are atleast some multi-millionaire tech bros who are there entirely by luck. And if you made $10m, $20m, $100m and had early Facebook on your CV? Well you can spend the rest of your days waxing lyrical about how astute and innovative you are and how you're the master of the universe. Hell, you can set up your own VC gig and start putting some of that reputation to work. Are you any good at anything? Probably not. But you're not going to take 100% losses on everything and people are going to pay you a decent chunk to manage their money and get in on those investments that you - a genius thought leader - can identify as being the next sliced bread. At the end of the day even if it goes badly you can probably dump your shit investments on dumb retail investors. You're never going to be broke, and no one knows if you have $10m in the bank or $100m. I guess the only thing you can't do is start a podcast where you're loudly stupid every week, that would be a real dumb move, but other than that based on a little luck you can coast for the rest of your life.