3 ms·

I think your point is a good one, there's some arrogance in assuming our short observations can be extrapolated forward, yet pointing this out is frowned upon.

I think your point is a good one, there's some arrogance in assuming our short observations can be extrapolated forward, yet pointing this out is frowned upon. My guess is people fear inaction on climate change, so they are comfortable with working on incomplete information, and willing to pretend (consciously or not) that climate is well understood.

DoreenMichele 3y ago
I've lived without a car in the US for a lot of years. I'm a few classes short of a BS in Environmental Studies, intended as preparation for a Masters in Planning. I do plenty of research and I produce resources for fostering constructive change which mostly don't have traction. It seems like big feels in online forums is the extent of it for too many people.
- jimmygrapes 3y ago
  You've been around here long enough that you should know better. Kudos for even trying, and I hope you keep on, but also don't let it get you down. Even if you agree with 99% of a cult, it's that 1% of error checking that gets you excommunicated, at best.
  - DoreenMichele 3y ago
    I have absolutely no idea what you are trying to say here. I've made the exact same point previously on HN and it got a few upvotes and zero argument. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488 HN is a big forum with around 5 million unique visitors per month last I heard a figure from a reliable source. It's probably more these days. Who sees it first, how they react, time of day -- heck if I know why I can say the exact same thing on HN at different times and get wildly different reactions, but I can and I do.
    - jimmygrapes 3y ago
      My apologies, I must have mistaken you for someone else.
- adammarples 3y ago
  It's a bit much to dismiss all of our best analysis of our best data as "big feels"
  - DoreenMichele 3y ago
    I walk the walk. Other people buy electric cars to green wash their car-centric lifestyle and then hand wring about how we are doomed and all ye who enter here give up hope. And that analysis says the part we most fear is the man-made part of the equation. If it's man-made, it can be man unmade, and never mind how certain most people are that getting people to change is a lost cause.
  - revelio 3y ago
    If the data is of sufficiently low quality (and long term temperature data is), then it doesn't matter if it's the best analysis of the best possible. It's still going to generate unreliable conclusions.
acchow 3y ago
It's not just extrapolation. It's also prediction based on well-understood chemical/physical processes in the atmosphere and glaciers and oceans.

DoreenMichele 3y ago

I've lived without a car in the US for a lot of years. I'm a few classes short of a BS in Environmental Studies, intended as preparation for a Masters in Planning. I do plenty of research and I produce resources for fostering constructive change which mostly don't have traction. It seems like big feels in online forums is the extent of it for too many people.

jimmygrapes 3y ago
You've been around here long enough that you should know better. Kudos for even trying, and I hope you keep on, but also don't let it get you down. Even if you agree with 99% of a cult, it's that 1% of error checking that gets you excommunicated, at best.
- DoreenMichele 3y ago
  I have absolutely no idea what you are trying to say here. I've made the exact same point previously on HN and it got a few upvotes and zero argument. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488 HN is a big forum with around 5 million unique visitors per month last I heard a figure from a reliable source. It's probably more these days. Who sees it first, how they react, time of day -- heck if I know why I can say the exact same thing on HN at different times and get wildly different reactions, but I can and I do.
  - jimmygrapes 3y ago
    My apologies, I must have mistaken you for someone else.
adammarples 3y ago
It's a bit much to dismiss all of our best analysis of our best data as "big feels"
- DoreenMichele 3y ago
  I walk the walk. Other people buy electric cars to green wash their car-centric lifestyle and then hand wring about how we are doomed and all ye who enter here give up hope. And that analysis says the part we most fear is the man-made part of the equation. If it's man-made, it can be man unmade, and never mind how certain most people are that getting people to change is a lost cause.
- revelio 3y ago
  If the data is of sufficiently low quality (and long term temperature data is), then it doesn't matter if it's the best analysis of the best possible. It's still going to generate unreliable conclusions.

acchow 3y ago

It's not just extrapolation. It's also prediction based on well-understood chemical/physical processes in the atmosphere and glaciers and oceans.