I fully agree. Predicting future events is even more difficult than it seems and we constantly fail. The only thing we can reasonably say about the state of AI

I fully agree. Predicting future events is even more difficult than it seems and we constantly fail. The only thing we can reasonably say about the state of AI is that we are closer to so-called AGI. We're seeing exciting progress and that it turn is attracting more efforts in the field, potentially leading to an acceleration. But we could hit a wall, for many reasons, the field is almost entirely filled by unknown unknowns. Nuclear fusion, Quantum Computing, Nanotech, Genetic Engineering, all of those fields are still evolving, slowly, because of technological and scientifical roadblocks.