2 ms·

But worth trying to guess! I think the only other project similar in character would be nuclear weapons, and I definitely think the world would’ve appreciated a

by bbor 4y ago

But worth trying to guess! I think the only other project similar in character would be nuclear weapons, and I definitely think the world would’ve appreciated a heads up there. Just because it’s hard to predict doesn’t mean we shouldn’t reason about it and get some ballpark estimates, IMO

throwaway22032 4y ago
Yes. I think on AI research in particular though, we could show that we're close, but not convincingly that we are far away. Not in the current world, anyway. With 1950s levels of compute, sure.