I am not saying that a convincing answer has to be convoluted. But a simple answer is not always the right one. To understand when a simple answer is unlikely

I am not saying that a convincing answer has to be convoluted. But a simple answer is not always the right one. To understand when a simple answer is unlikely to be correct, you do benefit from understanding the mathematics. There’s a reason that people with doctorates in statistics spend 8 to 10 years in school to learn how to contribute to it.