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"Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, or about 2° F in total." [1] So a total of 1.1° C (2° F

by eggy 3y ago

"Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, or about 2° F in total." [1] So a total of 1.1° C (2° F) since 1880. Could it be something else? Food supply and deforestation? The temperature shift does not seem to be significant enough. I am assuming when Prospect Park gets a foot of snow, they will head South? [1] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...

TeMPOraL 3y ago
Isn't the yearly average a bad metric to track anyway? I'd imagine most living things are much more sensitive to minimum and maximum temperatures. If the yearly temperature range expands in both directions, it won't be properly visible in the yearly average.
- ChainOfFools 3y ago
  The permanent freeze boundaries of the Arctic and Antarctic regions shift by hundreds of miles with each degree in global average change, this is where the sea level dangers come from.
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    Fair enough. This is the kind of cyclical process without discontinuities, so it will follow the average. However, for things like animal migration - and generally the more immediate threats of climate change, such as increasingly destructive weather events, ecosystems dying out, crops failing, wet bulb temperature hitting levels that make some countries uninhabitable in the summer - tracking the high and low points matters much more. E.g. the average may even go down, but if this is because cold point drops and high point goes up, ever for a small part of the year, we can kiss farming in the region goodbye.
notfried 3y ago
The rise is not uniformly distributed, not regionally nor seasonally. While a degree or two across Earth may seem small, this is only the average, and across the year. There are regions where the rise is much higher, which could affect the ecosystem in that area significantly, which would have compounding effects on related and neighboring ecosystems.
roter 3y ago
Remember that global averages include lots of ocean. Over land we have much faster rates of warming. e.g. Central Park has been rising on average 0.5F per decade [0]. [0] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/city/time-series/USW00094728/tavg/1/3/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020&trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1895&endtrendyear=2023 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-gla...
- eggy 3y ago
  Yes, but even if you take into account regional temperatures over land like in Brazil or Florida vs. New York, I don't see how 1 or 2 degrees F would have a bird go that much further North when it is only for a few months. I proposed another possible cause - deforestation or food supply, since they are from places like Brazil and Florida, and they have been spotted in NY before this, and I still don't see how a few degrees is enough to have a bird go 1500 to 3000 miles further North in substantial numbers.
graycat 3y ago
There is the old sun spot cycle with period of 11 years. Supposedly currently the rate of sun spots is increasing, and the peak will be in ~3 years. So, sun spots send out some particles. In addition there are cosmic rays from far outside our solar system. When cosmic rays hit the upper atmosphere, they cause the water vapor to form little water droplets which form clouds which have a net cooling effect. Sun spots, though, interfere with the cosmic rays and, thus, have a net warming effect. So, for the next ~3 years we will be getting some net warming from the increased rate of sun spots from the peak of the sun spot cycle.

by eggy 3y ago

TeMPOraL 3y ago

Isn't the yearly average a bad metric to track anyway? I'd imagine most living things are much more sensitive to minimum and maximum temperatures. If the yearly temperature range expands in both directions, it won't be properly visible in the yearly average.

ChainOfFools 3y ago
The permanent freeze boundaries of the Arctic and Antarctic regions shift by hundreds of miles with each degree in global average change, this is where the sea level dangers come from.
- TeMPOraL 3y ago
  Fair enough. This is the kind of cyclical process without discontinuities, so it will follow the average. However, for things like animal migration - and generally the more immediate threats of climate change, such as increasingly destructive weather events, ecosystems dying out, crops failing, wet bulb temperature hitting levels that make some countries uninhabitable in the summer - tracking the high and low points matters much more. E.g. the average may even go down, but if this is because cold point drops and high point goes up, ever for a small part of the year, we can kiss farming in the region goodbye.

notfried 3y ago

The rise is not uniformly distributed, not regionally nor seasonally. While a degree or two across Earth may seem small, this is only the average, and across the year. There are regions where the rise is much higher, which could affect the ecosystem in that area significantly, which would have compounding effects on related and neighboring ecosystems.

roter 3y ago

Remember that global averages include lots of ocean. Over land we have much faster rates of warming. e.g. Central Park has been rising on average 0.5F per decade [0]. [0] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/city/time-series/USW00094728/tavg/1/3/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020&trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1895&endtrendyear=2023 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-gla...

eggy 3y ago
Yes, but even if you take into account regional temperatures over land like in Brazil or Florida vs. New York, I don't see how 1 or 2 degrees F would have a bird go that much further North when it is only for a few months. I proposed another possible cause - deforestation or food supply, since they are from places like Brazil and Florida, and they have been spotted in NY before this, and I still don't see how a few degrees is enough to have a bird go 1500 to 3000 miles further North in substantial numbers.

graycat 3y ago

There is the old sun spot cycle with period of 11 years. Supposedly currently the rate of sun spots is increasing, and the peak will be in ~3 years. So, sun spots send out some particles. In addition there are cosmic rays from far outside our solar system. When cosmic rays hit the upper atmosphere, they cause the water vapor to form little water droplets which form clouds which have a net cooling effect. Sun spots, though, interfere with the cosmic rays and, thus, have a net warming effect. So, for the next ~3 years we will be getting some net warming from the increased rate of sun spots from the peak of the sun spot cycle.