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Does that idea of a smart home really appeal outside the HN/Popular Science crowd? Perhaps there's no compelling use to constitute a market worth pursuing? Per

Does that idea of a smart home really appeal outside the HN/Popular Science crowd? Perhaps there's no compelling use to constitute a market worth pursuing? Perhaps the only real customers for the technology are the ones that can buy and sell the profiles collected from the private habits of the end users.

bombcar 4y ago
There are a few actually useful things for a "smart home" but much of it can be replaced by intelligent design during the build. For example, the master bedroom should have four-way light switches [1] such that the lights in the room can be turned off by the switch next to the door, the switch next to the bathroom, and a switch on either side of the bed. Even a "home theater setup" switch can be created by some intelligent lighting choices (turn off main lights but turn on "audience lights" which triggers the screen to drop down, projector to come on, etc). [1] Once at 4-way, you can go to N-way by chaining as many as you want: https://matthews.sites.wfu.edu/courses/p230/switches/SwitchesTut.html https://matthews.sites.wfu.edu/courses/p230/switches/Switche...
throwaway173738 4y ago
I think the problem is that all the products put the user in control of a switch that happens to require wifi and the internet to flick on or off. There’s very little value in replacing light switches. Other players in the space that are successful provide things that are better that switches. Hue, for example, lets you change the color of your lighting. Nest lets you warm up your house before you get home. There’s some interest in better switches. I think the best switch of all is going to be to anticipate the user’s needs and adjust the house to them. It’ll likely be in a range of subtlety between closing the blinds for you when you’re about to walk through your living room naked and giving you a light show if you put dance music on. The reason you probably won’t ever see it is because not everyone wants the same things and it’s difficult to intuit what anyone wants without being told. You have to solve some pretty big social problems with technology to make it seamless for normal people. The most sensible approach might be to somehow clone your consciousness into a machine and let the machine control your house. This would probably make a great Black Mirror episode.
waboremo 4y ago
Considering it's estimated at $80bn and expected to grow to double that by 2026 in NA alone[1], not sure how you can say it's just a HN thing. Even in home building its impacts are huge, with most home builders now having plenty of smart home packages, such as Mattamy in NA partnering with Ecobee and Fernsby. People expect more from their homes. Perhaps you might be viewing smart homes in too narrow of a view to recognize how wide spread it is. [1] https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/global-smart-homes-market-industry https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/global-s...
- cratermoon 4y ago
  Oh, I know new construction of both single-family and multi-family is a big market, but that's at the behest of the developers. The people buying and renting don't necessarily choose those things, and many renters would prefer their landlord not be able to control their home. Their choices are then limited to whether or not they are able to find housing without smart features. Again, the question comes down to whether or not the residents are the market. > People expect more from their homes That sounds like housing industry hype. People want an affordable, safe, secure home. They don't necessarily want or even need to check the status of their HVAC over the internet while on vacation in Maui.
  - waboremo 4y ago
    Sure, they want a safe secure home, and part of that is smart home features. I don't know why you're really downplaying it here, it's not as if smart home features are exclusive to the "dumb" things like checking HVAC over the internet. You can look up plenty of statistics regarding smart homes, and every one of them shows growth, and increase of demand. Especially considering smart homes cost more, this isn't a limitation, as most smart home packages are an additional cost to their rent/purchase. Going back to Mattamy, this is an additional monthly subscription. Again, I don't understand your attempt to downplay this. It seems narrative driven rather than objective. You want to believe something is true, so you come up with ideas like landlords being enough of a big market to double smart home industry in 3 years.
defrost 4y ago
The amount of command and control that goes along with a modern high end North American home with basement HVAC, under floor heating, etc. has appeal outside of this crowd and outside of home use. I deal with a lot of small to large farm | market garden | light business queries and many people are interested in fully digitally metred water (scheme + bore) | power | gas usage with fine control on reticulation, powered machines, furnaces, etc. There's less interest in voice controlled automation and far more in fully logged + spreadsheeted resource usage and scheduled operation patterns. There's keen interest in early notification of failures, leaks, spikes, etc. This overlaps "home" in the sense that many of these queries are coming from people that live where they want these systems.

bombcar 4y ago

There are a few actually useful things for a "smart home" but much of it can be replaced by intelligent design during the build. For example, the master bedroom should have four-way light switches [1] such that the lights in the room can be turned off by the switch next to the door, the switch next to the bathroom, and a switch on either side of the bed. Even a "home theater setup" switch can be created by some intelligent lighting choices (turn off main lights but turn on "audience lights" which triggers the screen to drop down, projector to come on, etc). [1] Once at 4-way, you can go to N-way by chaining as many as you want: https://matthews.sites.wfu.edu/courses/p230/switches/SwitchesTut.html https://matthews.sites.wfu.edu/courses/p230/switches/Switche...

throwaway173738 4y ago

I think the problem is that all the products put the user in control of a switch that happens to require wifi and the internet to flick on or off. There’s very little value in replacing light switches. Other players in the space that are successful provide things that are better that switches. Hue, for example, lets you change the color of your lighting. Nest lets you warm up your house before you get home. There’s some interest in better switches. I think the best switch of all is going to be to anticipate the user’s needs and adjust the house to them. It’ll likely be in a range of subtlety between closing the blinds for you when you’re about to walk through your living room naked and giving you a light show if you put dance music on. The reason you probably won’t ever see it is because not everyone wants the same things and it’s difficult to intuit what anyone wants without being told. You have to solve some pretty big social problems with technology to make it seamless for normal people. The most sensible approach might be to somehow clone your consciousness into a machine and let the machine control your house. This would probably make a great Black Mirror episode.

waboremo 4y ago

Considering it's estimated at $80bn and expected to grow to double that by 2026 in NA alone[1], not sure how you can say it's just a HN thing. Even in home building its impacts are huge, with most home builders now having plenty of smart home packages, such as Mattamy in NA partnering with Ecobee and Fernsby. People expect more from their homes. Perhaps you might be viewing smart homes in too narrow of a view to recognize how wide spread it is. [1] https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/global-smart-homes-market-industry https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/global-s...

cratermoon 4y ago
Oh, I know new construction of both single-family and multi-family is a big market, but that's at the behest of the developers. The people buying and renting don't necessarily choose those things, and many renters would prefer their landlord not be able to control their home. Their choices are then limited to whether or not they are able to find housing without smart features. Again, the question comes down to whether or not the residents are the market. > People expect more from their homes That sounds like housing industry hype. People want an affordable, safe, secure home. They don't necessarily want or even need to check the status of their HVAC over the internet while on vacation in Maui.
- waboremo 4y ago
  Sure, they want a safe secure home, and part of that is smart home features. I don't know why you're really downplaying it here, it's not as if smart home features are exclusive to the "dumb" things like checking HVAC over the internet. You can look up plenty of statistics regarding smart homes, and every one of them shows growth, and increase of demand. Especially considering smart homes cost more, this isn't a limitation, as most smart home packages are an additional cost to their rent/purchase. Going back to Mattamy, this is an additional monthly subscription. Again, I don't understand your attempt to downplay this. It seems narrative driven rather than objective. You want to believe something is true, so you come up with ideas like landlords being enough of a big market to double smart home industry in 3 years.

defrost 4y ago

The amount of command and control that goes along with a modern high end North American home with basement HVAC, under floor heating, etc. has appeal outside of this crowd and outside of home use. I deal with a lot of small to large farm | market garden | light business queries and many people are interested in fully digitally metred water (scheme + bore) | power | gas usage with fine control on reticulation, powered machines, furnaces, etc. There's less interest in voice controlled automation and far more in fully logged + spreadsheeted resource usage and scheduled operation patterns. There's keen interest in early notification of failures, leaks, spikes, etc. This overlaps "home" in the sense that many of these queries are coming from people that live where they want these systems.