5 ms·

Yes, but what we can do is compare, as the article states. In the UK, since early 2020 there have been 220K deaths from coronavirus in a population of 70 milli

by throwaway22032 3y ago

Yes, but what we can do is compare, as the article states. In the UK, since early 2020 there have been 220K deaths from coronavirus in a population of 70 million. That's approximately 0.3% of the population. (My understanding is that the US has roughly the same proportion). I feel very able to grasp that, you can just look at, say, ordinarily, very roughly 1% of the population dies per year. edit: the actual percentage is slightly lower, but this is a good ballpark. If we front load all of the coronavirus deaths into year 1 (this is pretty much true, it's really tailed off post vaccine), and we assume they're all "excess" deaths, then it's a bumper year in which we have 30%, maybe 40-50% more deaths than normal. Whether you feel that's a lot is an opinion. I feel it's significant but didn't warrant the response it got. I actually think that what people don't realise intuitively is that over half a million people die annually in the UK. We are actually indeed mortal.

breck 3y ago
Very reasonable and accurate interpretation. What I'm trying to figure out now is how so many brains could have fallen for the lies and exaggerations. I think I greatly underestimated how much fear dominates most people. My models of disease were spot on but my models of human behavior are definitely terrible.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
dom96 3y ago
> I feel it's significant but didn't warrant the response it got. Worth keeping in mind that this would have been significantly worse had we not had the response we had (primarily because the NHS would not have been able to cope). Plus if our response was faster we likely would have saved even more lives.
- version_five 3y ago
  Covid reactions have likely destroyed or ended more lives than were saved. There's no evidence that an even bigger overreaction would have been anything but even more destructive, if it was even possible. I'd like to think, despite what pushovers people turned out to be, that governments were very close to the maximum of what people would tolerate without open revolt, so there's not much more theatre they could have put on anyway. If you meant some sort of sane triage, where old folks homes got extra attention and kids going to the park were left alone, then I agree. For context, I live in Quebec, where the government let thousands of our elderlies die due to poor institutional infection controls, while instead focusing their efforts of violating ordinary people's civil rights however they could.
- throwaway22032 3y ago
  Do you have an upper bound on this? Something like - how many excess deaths as a percentage of population did we see in countries without functioning healthcare systems? I'd probably have agreed with a year of lockdown/restrictions if we could avoid approx. 2% mortality with it. It has to be at least more than one year of ordinary mortality to be worth significantly curtailing our daily lives for. Obviously that's just my opinion but it feels like a basic cost-benefit analysis.
  - shagie 3y ago
    Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21 - https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/full... > The table provides summary statistics for each country and territory, including reported deaths due to COVID-19, estimated excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ratio of the two, and reported and excess all-age COVID-19 mortality rates. The magnitude of the excess mortality burden has varied substantially between countries. The highest estimated excess mortality rate due to COVID-19 was 734·9 deaths (95% UI 594·1–879·2) per 100 000 of the population in Bolivia (compared with the global rate of 120·3 [113·1–129·3]), whereas negative excess mortality rates were estimated in Iceland, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, and Taiwan (province of China), representing a large range. Excess mortality rates exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 in 21 countries. At the regional level, the highest estimated excess mortality rates were in Andean Latin America, eastern Europe, central Europe, southern sub-Saharan Africa, and central Latin America, with several locations outside these regions having similarly high rates, particularly Lebanon, Armenia, Tunisia, Libya, several regions in Italy, and several states in southern USA (figure 2, table). Rates varied substantially in western Europe; some countries had rates nearly as high as the locations listed previously, while others, such as Iceland, Norway, Ireland, and Cyprus, had some of the lowest rates in the world, at less than 50 deaths per 100 000. Mortality rates varied across north Africa and the Middle East, with high rates in Lebanon (416·2 deaths [347·4–515·5] per 100 000), Tunisia (324·2 [265·4–376·4] per 100 000), Libya (292·1 [232·2–358·8] per 100 000), and Iraq (280·1 [216·7–362·5] per 100 000). Low excess mortality rates were estimated across sub-Saharan Africa, with the notable exception of four nations in southern sub-Saharan Africa: Eswatini (634·9 [491·8–775·4] per 100 000), Lesotho (562·9 [460·8–691·4] per 100 000), Botswana (399·5 [329·1–482·1] per 100 000), and Namibia (395·6 [340·2–448·8] per 100 000). In south Asia, some states in India had excess mortality rates due to COVID-19 similar to those of some high-income countries in the northern hemisphere. > In terms of cumulative number of excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021, the highest numbers of deaths were estimated in India (4·07 million [95% UI 3·71–4·36]) and the USA (1·13 million [1·08–1·18]; --- For the morality within the United States https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7218a3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7218a3.htm and https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm On average, about 3 million people die each year. In 2019, there were 2,854,838 deaths. 2020 had 3,383,729 and 2021 had 3,464,231 deaths. I would be very concerned with the proposal that we need 12x the rate before curtailing various activities in daily life especially considering that increase was with mitigating efforts in place.

breck 3y ago

Very reasonable and accurate interpretation. What I'm trying to figure out now is how so many brains could have fallen for the lies and exaggerations. I think I greatly underestimated how much fear dominates most people. My models of disease were spot on but my models of human behavior are definitely terrible.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

dom96 3y ago

> I feel it's significant but didn't warrant the response it got. Worth keeping in mind that this would have been significantly worse had we not had the response we had (primarily because the NHS would not have been able to cope). Plus if our response was faster we likely would have saved even more lives.

version_five 3y ago
Covid reactions have likely destroyed or ended more lives than were saved. There's no evidence that an even bigger overreaction would have been anything but even more destructive, if it was even possible. I'd like to think, despite what pushovers people turned out to be, that governments were very close to the maximum of what people would tolerate without open revolt, so there's not much more theatre they could have put on anyway. If you meant some sort of sane triage, where old folks homes got extra attention and kids going to the park were left alone, then I agree. For context, I live in Quebec, where the government let thousands of our elderlies die due to poor institutional infection controls, while instead focusing their efforts of violating ordinary people's civil rights however they could.
throwaway22032 3y ago
Do you have an upper bound on this? Something like - how many excess deaths as a percentage of population did we see in countries without functioning healthcare systems? I'd probably have agreed with a year of lockdown/restrictions if we could avoid approx. 2% mortality with it. It has to be at least more than one year of ordinary mortality to be worth significantly curtailing our daily lives for. Obviously that's just my opinion but it feels like a basic cost-benefit analysis.
- shagie 3y ago
  Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21 - https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/full... > The table provides summary statistics for each country and territory, including reported deaths due to COVID-19, estimated excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ratio of the two, and reported and excess all-age COVID-19 mortality rates. The magnitude of the excess mortality burden has varied substantially between countries. The highest estimated excess mortality rate due to COVID-19 was 734·9 deaths (95% UI 594·1–879·2) per 100 000 of the population in Bolivia (compared with the global rate of 120·3 [113·1–129·3]), whereas negative excess mortality rates were estimated in Iceland, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, and Taiwan (province of China), representing a large range. Excess mortality rates exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 in 21 countries. At the regional level, the highest estimated excess mortality rates were in Andean Latin America, eastern Europe, central Europe, southern sub-Saharan Africa, and central Latin America, with several locations outside these regions having similarly high rates, particularly Lebanon, Armenia, Tunisia, Libya, several regions in Italy, and several states in southern USA (figure 2, table). Rates varied substantially in western Europe; some countries had rates nearly as high as the locations listed previously, while others, such as Iceland, Norway, Ireland, and Cyprus, had some of the lowest rates in the world, at less than 50 deaths per 100 000. Mortality rates varied across north Africa and the Middle East, with high rates in Lebanon (416·2 deaths [347·4–515·5] per 100 000), Tunisia (324·2 [265·4–376·4] per 100 000), Libya (292·1 [232·2–358·8] per 100 000), and Iraq (280·1 [216·7–362·5] per 100 000). Low excess mortality rates were estimated across sub-Saharan Africa, with the notable exception of four nations in southern sub-Saharan Africa: Eswatini (634·9 [491·8–775·4] per 100 000), Lesotho (562·9 [460·8–691·4] per 100 000), Botswana (399·5 [329·1–482·1] per 100 000), and Namibia (395·6 [340·2–448·8] per 100 000). In south Asia, some states in India had excess mortality rates due to COVID-19 similar to those of some high-income countries in the northern hemisphere. > In terms of cumulative number of excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021, the highest numbers of deaths were estimated in India (4·07 million [95% UI 3·71–4·36]) and the USA (1·13 million [1·08–1·18]; --- For the morality within the United States https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7218a3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7218a3.htm and https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm On average, about 3 million people die each year. In 2019, there were 2,854,838 deaths. 2020 had 3,383,729 and 2021 had 3,464,231 deaths. I would be very concerned with the proposal that we need 12x the rate before curtailing various activities in daily life especially considering that increase was with mitigating efforts in place.