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I'm not sure that transition of power is a 'taboo': Yekaterina Shulman have been discussing this topic for a few years for a wide popular audience. It's just th

I'm not sure that transition of power is a 'taboo': Yekaterina Shulman have been discussing this topic for a few years for a wide popular audience. It's just that there was never any satisfactory answer to that one. With regards to dictators of Spain, Portugal and Greece. These countries could get rid of autocrats and fall back to Europe's safety net. But in case of Russia it is not an option, as nobody wants Russia and especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia. There's nowhere that Russia could 'return' to.

ivan_gammel 4y ago
Ekaterina Schulmann seems to be more correct spelling, according to her webpage at Robert Bosch Academy website.
LightBug1 4y ago
Really? India and China seem to be taking up the slack ...
hourago 4y ago
> especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia The EU was build to avoid another World War were Germany/UK/France start fighting. Once all European countries are tied economically for any of them to benefit of starting a war is very difficult. And, of course, there is also the idea that a bigger economic area will create more opportunities and make Europe more competitive. If anything projects like Nordstream prove that countries inside the EU were willing to increase their ties with Russia. If Russia had not initiated another war, Crimea was given a pass, there will be closer ties. Russia has nobody else to blame from breaking ties with Europe but themselves.
- thriftwy 4y ago
  Russia did not see any important integration with Europe countries even before 2014. Yes there were hydrocarbon pipelines but that's that. Amenities such as visa waiver travel, student exchange programmes, cultural exchange and economic integration were practically nonexistent. It does sound strange if you claim to want to avoid a new war in Europe but systemically exclude the largest country in Europe from that equation. Meanwhile trying to integrate their direct neighbours into your sphere of influence.
  - robin_reala 4y ago
    Did Russia ever attempt to apply to join the EU? The real countries in reduce war equation were Germany and France, not Russia.
    - TazeTSchnitzel 4y ago
      Putin made some comments in the early 2000's to the effect that Russia sees itself as part of the European culture and might like to be part of the EU, but it wants its own viewpoint on things to be respected. I suspect the latter is a crucial caveat. Presumably he'd never be okay with implementing a liberal democracy to EU standards or signing up to EU defence policy. On the other side, I suspect that none of the existing EU members would be happy with having a new one that's so much larger in population than any of the others that it'd gain effectively a veto power over everything, to say nothing of the domestic political issues with potential east-to-west migration.
      - hgsgm 3y ago
        EU voting power for issues that matter is state based in the European Commission, not population based.
        TazeTSchnitzel 3y ago
        I think that's oversimplified. The European Commission is the executive, not a legislative body. The EU has effectively a bicameral legislature formed by the Parliament and the Council. The Parliament has direct elections with seats apportioned to member states roughly corresponding to population. The Council represents member states directly, but they only sometimes have equal weight, because many things use qualified-majority voting (QMV) where a majority of states and represented population is required. Most things either need to pass through both of these legislatures, or if they're exclusive to the Council, are covered by QMV. The number of things covered by QMV has only grown with time and lots of these would be considered important. There are of course still some matters that require unanimity among states though.
    - 4y ago
- theironhammer 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - electrondood 4y ago
    I think Russia has done a wonderful job of that itself. Why would Germany ever want to depend on Russian gas again, if it's just another lever for extortion?
- LapsangGuzzler 3y ago
  > Russia has nobody else to blame from breaking ties with Europe but themselves. There are always two sides to every story, and it’s not that hard to find credible western foreign policy experts who are more than willing to point out that decisions by the west going back to the fall of the Soviet Union played a big role in where we are today[0]. Geopolitics, just like everything else, has nuance. 0: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4 https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4
simion314 4y ago
West of Europe were not confrontational with Russia, they were dreaming that Russia can be controlled with diplomacy and economy. Sure East Europe knew better what is the discourse in Russia and what Russians will do for their supreme leader.
- thriftwy 4y ago
  So you are dreaming to 'control' another country and surprised when the country in question refuses to be controlled. What's in for them in that arrangement? Even funnier is another comment where Russians should risk their lives to overthrow their government and (implicitly) betray millions of their compatriots in order to supply Europe with their cheap 'ressources'. Using Molotov cocktails. Where's the carrot?
  - simion314 4y ago
    Nah, they dream they could bring Russia to the modern age, democracy, human rights, respect for other nations , collaborations . Nobody in EU wants to steal Russians resources, too bad the Russian oligarchs are doing it. there is a Romanian saying about Romania but it applies to Russia too, "poor rich country" not sure if it translates well... the country is rich but the people are poor and suffering because of the small number of parasites. My theory is that when you have same persona ndparty in power for decades then they can't hide their incompetence and failures on a party from opposition and they start inventing bad guys somehere outside (like UK invented the EU bad guy and ended up with Brexit( so Putin invented a big conspiracy about the west, LGBTQ , Israel and blame all his failures on them. Now he is gone old and senile and he believed his propaganda.
    - thriftwy 4y ago
      I don't remember EU doing anything in Russia that was conductive to democracy, human rights, respect for other nations, etc. The only positive influence I can think of, is European Court for Human Rights. But especially, EU didn't do anything when Putin decided to stay in power after 2008, they did not have much cultural integration with Russia, so it seems they expected to sit on the bank and expect democracy in Russia float past. With regards to "respect for other nations", Russians know how Russian minority is treated in Baltic states and that Russian speakers are treated like 3rd class citizens in Ukraine (even before 2014). Russia treated other nations way better than those other nations treated Russians when on their own turf. I believe you are confusing Putin with e.g. Orban because Putin is actually BFF with Israel, and even the fact that they are mildly supporting Ukraine didn't dent that.
hutzlibu 4y ago
"and especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia" Is that a US point of view? As a european, it is the first time I heard this. (Edit: I mean yes, it was founded under the assumption of soviet threat, but it was not constructed especially against russia, which is how I read your comment) The NATO was constructed against communist russia. But the reasons for the founding of the EU are more complex, but mostly they were for .. europa. Not to become dependant on russia, nor USA. Stand on its own. Interconnecting economically, to not have a big war again. And large parts of europe would actually love to get back to also freely trading with russia. Eastern europe (starting in east germany) had tight industrial relationships with russia and were therefore also hit hard by the sanctions. Now it seems hard, to imagine going back while Putin is in power, but 15 years ago, it all looked very different. With a radical change of leadership in russia, it would look different again. Russia is huge and has lots of ressources, they would be welcomed back for sure.
- cutler 3y ago
  If there is to be any post-war justice it will involve serious Russian reparations with their economy already significantly weakened. Add to that the lessons learned by EU member states and I don't see any rapprochement for a very long time.
  - hgsgm 3y ago
    That's the blueprint for how Europe returned to greatness after The Great War to End all War in the 1920s!
    - hutzlibu 3y ago
      Yes, "justice" can be a dangerous concept in the geopolitical context. There is lots of injustice happening all the time and if you really want justice, you would have to be consequent on all sides, I think. Starting with Iraq, Kashoggi, Assange, Snowden, Turkey, Armenia, Syria, Jemen, ... And as long as a really great war with china remains possible, a "injust" peace with russia might be preferable, compared to a "just" war, with the NATO against the combined east.
kergonath 4y ago
> nobody wants Russia and especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia This is laughably misinformed. What the E.U. was built on has absolutely nothing to do with Russia. There have been ups and downs over the last couple of centuries, but neither France nor Germany are particularly russophobe.
- local_crmdgeon 4y ago
  Yeah, I'm not pro-EU but the bloc was originally a Coal and Steel trading pact. It expanded from there as deeper integration became advantageous.
gumby 4y ago
> especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia I think you have the EU and NATO confused. The two overlap a lot but they are far from coextensional.
- sereja 4y ago
  The EU is primarily a trade bloc, and it is in natural competition with the Eurasian Economic Union: countries can have tariff-free trade with either one bloc or the other, but not both at the same time. The current scramble over Ukraine is primarily motivated by the EU and the EAEU economically benefiting from the country being in their respective trade zone.
  - gumby 4y ago
    The EU is in origin and execution a political entity in which trade is one of its tools. The value of adding, say, Romania to the EU was hardly economic, but important for the anti-war mission. The integration of Turkey would be economically quite significant and valuable, but (sadly) lacks impetus on the political side. It is a NATO member. Likewise, Ukraine’s prewar economy was so small (midway between Hungary and Slovakia) that it would have been economically irrelevant to the EU but, as we have seen, important in the anti war basis. The economic size of the Eurasian Economic Union is quite small and I doubt it plays into the planning of anyone but its members and some of its immediate neighbors. I am from a small country with an economy roughly the size of Russia’s (Australia) and it’s clear that the EU has little interest, positive or negative with trade with Australia. Conversely I have literally never seen mention of the Eurasian version in an Australian newspaper.
    - thriftwy 4y ago
      The elephant in the room is that if you invite everybody in your anti-war club, but one country, that remaining country will get really nervous and you might as well get a war (what we are seeing). If the situation is that you can't invite everybody in, then the plan is defective from the start.
darthrupert 3y ago
I cannot speak for the whole continent, but as a single European who lives quite close to Russia, I say that a sane Russia would be the best thing that has happened to this planet in a long time. I truly want that. For a while Putin's Russia actually looked a bit like that. In early 2000s, USA was the warmongering religious asshole idiot of the world and Russia started to look respectable and honest in contrast. But somehow all that crumbled away. In retrospect, perhaps it was just a facade.

ivan_gammel 4y ago

Ekaterina Schulmann seems to be more correct spelling, according to her webpage at Robert Bosch Academy website.

LightBug1 4y ago

Really? India and China seem to be taking up the slack ...

hourago 4y ago

> especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia The EU was build to avoid another World War were Germany/UK/France start fighting. Once all European countries are tied economically for any of them to benefit of starting a war is very difficult. And, of course, there is also the idea that a bigger economic area will create more opportunities and make Europe more competitive. If anything projects like Nordstream prove that countries inside the EU were willing to increase their ties with Russia. If Russia had not initiated another war, Crimea was given a pass, there will be closer ties. Russia has nobody else to blame from breaking ties with Europe but themselves.

thriftwy 4y ago
Russia did not see any important integration with Europe countries even before 2014. Yes there were hydrocarbon pipelines but that's that. Amenities such as visa waiver travel, student exchange programmes, cultural exchange and economic integration were practically nonexistent. It does sound strange if you claim to want to avoid a new war in Europe but systemically exclude the largest country in Europe from that equation. Meanwhile trying to integrate their direct neighbours into your sphere of influence.
- robin_reala 4y ago
  Did Russia ever attempt to apply to join the EU? The real countries in reduce war equation were Germany and France, not Russia.
  - TazeTSchnitzel 4y ago
    Putin made some comments in the early 2000's to the effect that Russia sees itself as part of the European culture and might like to be part of the EU, but it wants its own viewpoint on things to be respected. I suspect the latter is a crucial caveat. Presumably he'd never be okay with implementing a liberal democracy to EU standards or signing up to EU defence policy. On the other side, I suspect that none of the existing EU members would be happy with having a new one that's so much larger in population than any of the others that it'd gain effectively a veto power over everything, to say nothing of the domestic political issues with potential east-to-west migration.
    - hgsgm 3y ago
      EU voting power for issues that matter is state based in the European Commission, not population based.
      - TazeTSchnitzel 3y ago
        I think that's oversimplified. The European Commission is the executive, not a legislative body. The EU has effectively a bicameral legislature formed by the Parliament and the Council. The Parliament has direct elections with seats apportioned to member states roughly corresponding to population. The Council represents member states directly, but they only sometimes have equal weight, because many things use qualified-majority voting (QMV) where a majority of states and represented population is required. Most things either need to pass through both of these legislatures, or if they're exclusive to the Council, are covered by QMV. The number of things covered by QMV has only grown with time and lots of these would be considered important. There are of course still some matters that require unanimity among states though.
  - 4y ago
theironhammer 4y ago
[flagged]
- electrondood 4y ago
  I think Russia has done a wonderful job of that itself. Why would Germany ever want to depend on Russian gas again, if it's just another lever for extortion?
LapsangGuzzler 3y ago
> Russia has nobody else to blame from breaking ties with Europe but themselves. There are always two sides to every story, and it’s not that hard to find credible western foreign policy experts who are more than willing to point out that decisions by the west going back to the fall of the Soviet Union played a big role in where we are today[0]. Geopolitics, just like everything else, has nuance. 0: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4 https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

simion314 4y ago

West of Europe were not confrontational with Russia, they were dreaming that Russia can be controlled with diplomacy and economy. Sure East Europe knew better what is the discourse in Russia and what Russians will do for their supreme leader.

thriftwy 4y ago
So you are dreaming to 'control' another country and surprised when the country in question refuses to be controlled. What's in for them in that arrangement? Even funnier is another comment where Russians should risk their lives to overthrow their government and (implicitly) betray millions of their compatriots in order to supply Europe with their cheap 'ressources'. Using Molotov cocktails. Where's the carrot?
- simion314 4y ago
  Nah, they dream they could bring Russia to the modern age, democracy, human rights, respect for other nations , collaborations . Nobody in EU wants to steal Russians resources, too bad the Russian oligarchs are doing it. there is a Romanian saying about Romania but it applies to Russia too, "poor rich country" not sure if it translates well... the country is rich but the people are poor and suffering because of the small number of parasites. My theory is that when you have same persona ndparty in power for decades then they can't hide their incompetence and failures on a party from opposition and they start inventing bad guys somehere outside (like UK invented the EU bad guy and ended up with Brexit( so Putin invented a big conspiracy about the west, LGBTQ , Israel and blame all his failures on them. Now he is gone old and senile and he believed his propaganda.
  - thriftwy 4y ago
    I don't remember EU doing anything in Russia that was conductive to democracy, human rights, respect for other nations, etc. The only positive influence I can think of, is European Court for Human Rights. But especially, EU didn't do anything when Putin decided to stay in power after 2008, they did not have much cultural integration with Russia, so it seems they expected to sit on the bank and expect democracy in Russia float past. With regards to "respect for other nations", Russians know how Russian minority is treated in Baltic states and that Russian speakers are treated like 3rd class citizens in Ukraine (even before 2014). Russia treated other nations way better than those other nations treated Russians when on their own turf. I believe you are confusing Putin with e.g. Orban because Putin is actually BFF with Israel, and even the fact that they are mildly supporting Ukraine didn't dent that.

hutzlibu 4y ago

"and especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia" Is that a US point of view? As a european, it is the first time I heard this. (Edit: I mean yes, it was founded under the assumption of soviet threat, but it was not constructed especially against russia, which is how I read your comment) The NATO was constructed against communist russia. But the reasons for the founding of the EU are more complex, but mostly they were for .. europa. Not to become dependant on russia, nor USA. Stand on its own. Interconnecting economically, to not have a big war again. And large parts of europe would actually love to get back to also freely trading with russia. Eastern europe (starting in east germany) had tight industrial relationships with russia and were therefore also hit hard by the sanctions. Now it seems hard, to imagine going back while Putin is in power, but 15 years ago, it all looked very different. With a radical change of leadership in russia, it would look different again. Russia is huge and has lots of ressources, they would be welcomed back for sure.

cutler 3y ago
If there is to be any post-war justice it will involve serious Russian reparations with their economy already significantly weakened. Add to that the lessons learned by EU member states and I don't see any rapprochement for a very long time.
- hgsgm 3y ago
  That's the blueprint for how Europe returned to greatness after The Great War to End all War in the 1920s!
  - hutzlibu 3y ago
    Yes, "justice" can be a dangerous concept in the geopolitical context. There is lots of injustice happening all the time and if you really want justice, you would have to be consequent on all sides, I think. Starting with Iraq, Kashoggi, Assange, Snowden, Turkey, Armenia, Syria, Jemen, ... And as long as a really great war with china remains possible, a "injust" peace with russia might be preferable, compared to a "just" war, with the NATO against the combined east.

kergonath 4y ago

> nobody wants Russia and especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia This is laughably misinformed. What the E.U. was built on has absolutely nothing to do with Russia. There have been ups and downs over the last couple of centuries, but neither France nor Germany are particularly russophobe.

local_crmdgeon 4y ago
Yeah, I'm not pro-EU but the bloc was originally a Coal and Steel trading pact. It expanded from there as deeper integration became advantageous.

gumby 4y ago

> especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia I think you have the EU and NATO confused. The two overlap a lot but they are far from coextensional.

sereja 4y ago
The EU is primarily a trade bloc, and it is in natural competition with the Eurasian Economic Union: countries can have tariff-free trade with either one bloc or the other, but not both at the same time. The current scramble over Ukraine is primarily motivated by the EU and the EAEU economically benefiting from the country being in their respective trade zone.
- gumby 4y ago
  The EU is in origin and execution a political entity in which trade is one of its tools. The value of adding, say, Romania to the EU was hardly economic, but important for the anti-war mission. The integration of Turkey would be economically quite significant and valuable, but (sadly) lacks impetus on the political side. It is a NATO member. Likewise, Ukraine’s prewar economy was so small (midway between Hungary and Slovakia) that it would have been economically irrelevant to the EU but, as we have seen, important in the anti war basis. The economic size of the Eurasian Economic Union is quite small and I doubt it plays into the planning of anyone but its members and some of its immediate neighbors. I am from a small country with an economy roughly the size of Russia’s (Australia) and it’s clear that the EU has little interest, positive or negative with trade with Australia. Conversely I have literally never seen mention of the Eurasian version in an Australian newspaper.
  - thriftwy 4y ago
    The elephant in the room is that if you invite everybody in your anti-war club, but one country, that remaining country will get really nervous and you might as well get a war (what we are seeing). If the situation is that you can't invite everybody in, then the plan is defective from the start.

darthrupert 3y ago

I cannot speak for the whole continent, but as a single European who lives quite close to Russia, I say that a sane Russia would be the best thing that has happened to this planet in a long time. I truly want that. For a while Putin's Russia actually looked a bit like that. In early 2000s, USA was the warmongering religious asshole idiot of the world and Russia started to look respectable and honest in contrast. But somehow all that crumbled away. In retrospect, perhaps it was just a facade.