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I predict a major decline in salaries and demand for software engineers. For three main reasons: AI, lack of funding to startups, remote work. A fourth reason

I predict a major decline in salaries and demand for software engineers. For three main reasons: AI, lack of funding to startups, remote work. A fourth reason would be overall economic growth decline. As an (aging) engineer myself, the best bet is to double down on AI, and continue to improve higher level biz and communication skills (and save more money LOL)

bobolino123 3y ago
As someone not living in the US, remote work is a plus for me.
- brianwawok 3y ago
  Few US firms pay US salary to not US, but it may still be better than local wages
  - pg_1234 3y ago
    50% of Silicon Valley pay is still pretty good in most places.
    - brianwawok 3y ago
      But thats not how it goes. They will pay 10-20% over market of wherever you live.
jimsimmons 3y ago
How is AI affecting software development in any meaningful way? Are you a programmer or a PM/CEO looking for a technical cofounder type of person
hgsgm 3y ago
There is so much software work (bugfixes and features) that we can't afford to do today. AI will create bugs at a faster rate than ever, and they will be harder to fix. We are nowhere near a demand collapse.
pydry 3y ago
A while back I predicted that consolidation among tech would lead to an all out assault on tech worker jobs/salaries that mirrored the industry consolidation followed by the joint assault on auto workers in 1950s Detroit by the big 3. I also predicted that when it happened to tech they would blame AI, because the inevitable march of progress makes a more comfortable scapegoat than sundar pichai and satya nadella and mark z. if you're them. It looks like we are right on track. The really scary part is that tech workers not only aren't unionized, they aren't even correctly perceiving the attack on them as an attack. And there is no resistance. No will to break these abusive monopolies (now acting as labor monopsonies) apart. No will to fight the 2nd round of illegal wage fixing. Just "oh well I guess ChatGPT can so my job now lol" of "economy sucks I guess".
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  makes a more comfortable scapegoat than sundar pichai and satya nadella and mark z. if you're them. You mean, those execs will start to use the "AI" excuse that they have to cut salaries because it's the only way to keep people employed ?
  - gombosg 3y ago
    Yes: "IBM to pause hiring in plan to replace 7,800 jobs with AI, Bloomberg reports" https://www.reuters.com/technology/ibm-pause-hiring-plans-replace-7800-jobs-with-ai-bloomberg-news-2023-05-01/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/ibm-pause-hiring-plans-re...
    - lurking_swe 3y ago
      Since when did IBM pay well? I agree this will probably be a trend for the industry as a whole. But I doubt this trend will hold for the top paying companies.
- jtj606 3y ago
  The article is discussing mostly how RSU-based compensation isn’t quite as valuable as it once was, considering the 2 year decline in tech stocks and delayed IPOs. While I don’t disagree that your longer term hunch may be right, declining stock prices aren’t really an assault on tech wages.
ChatGTP 3y ago
Saving as much money as possible, the future is too uncertain right for me to want to spend like I used too. Just too much disruption both from a business and now career perspective. I believe many people are now doing this and it will have detrimental effects economically. It feels like capitalism is kind of reaching some kind of maximum. Kind of starting to eat itself? Of course this is just an opinion, not claiming it's a fact. Just an observation based on my own sentiment, I can't be alone.
- mad0 3y ago
  This is what I think as well, I think we will see just another failure mode of capitalism, accumulation of wealth in hands of the few to the detriment of the rest, bubbles popping etc. . I think that the system was kind of designed for infinite growth, which worked well for sometime, but we might be reaching some ceilings here and there. Kinda sad that I've just got my first full-time gig, I mean I'm very happy and grateful, but I feel like I should have been born 5 years earlier to really get enough funds and traction to feel safe.
gniv 3y ago
I doubt it. I predict a small temporary decline, mostly due to inflation. Demand will remain high. TC will recover when the stock market rebounds in a few years.

bobolino123 3y ago

As someone not living in the US, remote work is a plus for me.

brianwawok 3y ago
Few US firms pay US salary to not US, but it may still be better than local wages
- pg_1234 3y ago
  50% of Silicon Valley pay is still pretty good in most places.
  - brianwawok 3y ago
    But thats not how it goes. They will pay 10-20% over market of wherever you live.

jimsimmons 3y ago

How is AI affecting software development in any meaningful way? Are you a programmer or a PM/CEO looking for a technical cofounder type of person

hgsgm 3y ago

There is so much software work (bugfixes and features) that we can't afford to do today. AI will create bugs at a faster rate than ever, and they will be harder to fix. We are nowhere near a demand collapse.

pydry 3y ago

A while back I predicted that consolidation among tech would lead to an all out assault on tech worker jobs/salaries that mirrored the industry consolidation followed by the joint assault on auto workers in 1950s Detroit by the big 3. I also predicted that when it happened to tech they would blame AI, because the inevitable march of progress makes a more comfortable scapegoat than sundar pichai and satya nadella and mark z. if you're them. It looks like we are right on track. The really scary part is that tech workers not only aren't unionized, they aren't even correctly perceiving the attack on them as an attack. And there is no resistance. No will to break these abusive monopolies (now acting as labor monopsonies) apart. No will to fight the 2nd round of illegal wage fixing. Just "oh well I guess ChatGPT can so my job now lol" of "economy sucks I guess".

ChatGTP 3y ago
makes a more comfortable scapegoat than sundar pichai and satya nadella and mark z. if you're them. You mean, those execs will start to use the "AI" excuse that they have to cut salaries because it's the only way to keep people employed ?
- gombosg 3y ago
  Yes: "IBM to pause hiring in plan to replace 7,800 jobs with AI, Bloomberg reports" https://www.reuters.com/technology/ibm-pause-hiring-plans-replace-7800-jobs-with-ai-bloomberg-news-2023-05-01/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/ibm-pause-hiring-plans-re...
  - lurking_swe 3y ago
    Since when did IBM pay well? I agree this will probably be a trend for the industry as a whole. But I doubt this trend will hold for the top paying companies.
jtj606 3y ago
The article is discussing mostly how RSU-based compensation isn’t quite as valuable as it once was, considering the 2 year decline in tech stocks and delayed IPOs. While I don’t disagree that your longer term hunch may be right, declining stock prices aren’t really an assault on tech wages.

ChatGTP 3y ago

Saving as much money as possible, the future is too uncertain right for me to want to spend like I used too. Just too much disruption both from a business and now career perspective. I believe many people are now doing this and it will have detrimental effects economically. It feels like capitalism is kind of reaching some kind of maximum. Kind of starting to eat itself? Of course this is just an opinion, not claiming it's a fact. Just an observation based on my own sentiment, I can't be alone.

mad0 3y ago
This is what I think as well, I think we will see just another failure mode of capitalism, accumulation of wealth in hands of the few to the detriment of the rest, bubbles popping etc. . I think that the system was kind of designed for infinite growth, which worked well for sometime, but we might be reaching some ceilings here and there. Kinda sad that I've just got my first full-time gig, I mean I'm very happy and grateful, but I feel like I should have been born 5 years earlier to really get enough funds and traction to feel safe.

gniv 3y ago

I doubt it. I predict a small temporary decline, mostly due to inflation. Demand will remain high. TC will recover when the stock market rebounds in a few years.