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> Are people aware that there’s an entire industry with 100s of billions in capital already working on these problems? I'm confused, what problem do you think

> Are people aware that there’s an entire industry with 100s of billions in capital already working on these problems? I'm confused, what problem do you think they are fixing ? Because they cannot fix an inherently practical problem. In most countries on this planet, you have three "problems" when it comes to EV demand, and none of them can be fixed by "100s of billions in capital" by private industry. Thee are : 1) There is (usually) only one national grid 2) There are only a finite number of power stations 3) Most people live in cities and in apartments / dense-housing This leads to two (because there's nothing you can do about point 3) super-hard, super-expensive "problems" that need fixing for all these EVs: 1) Expanding the grid is effectively a non-starter, the cost would be measured in trillions, not billions. 2) Building new power stations takes decades, not years. And right now there are not enough of them. 3) As I said, there's nothing you can do about point (3), i.e. it's simply not remotely viable that everybody can magically have solar panels and battery storage at home. Most people don't have the space. And expecting everyone to retro-fit is, realistically, a non-starter. Now, on the subject of power stations, you will probably come back and say "but, but .... renewables". Well, yes, renewables are cool and quick(er) to build than power stations, but they are not the panacea. Grid-level bulk solar is cool, but all those panels take vast amounts of space that most countries don't have to spare. Solar is also cool, until it gets dark at night. Grid-level wind is cool, but then on hot summer days there's not much wind. So you end up relying back on the old-school power generation (nuclear, coal, gas etc.). Hydro is cool, but for obvious reasons not available everywhere. And nobody's going to be rushing out building large numbers of new dams any time soon. Bulk-storage in batteries at grid level is not feasible to deal with all millions of EVs coming on stream. You would need millions of batteries, which as we know, batteries don't last forever.... So ultimately whether you love em or hate em, you still need old-school power generation. Which brings us neatly back to my point (2) ... Building new power stations takes decades, not years. And right now there are not enough of them. Hence 2030 is a pipe dream.

skybrian 3y ago
You don’t necessarily need “most people” to have a big and growing business, though. Getting electric cars into the garages of people in suburban and rural areas is still a pretty big market, and in these places there is often room to install solar panels. That will reduce load on the grid, which can be used for other purposes, including electric car charging in cities. Also, maybe we shouldn’t expect one kind of transportation to dominate like happened for cars? There can be different solutions for different use cases. Driverless taxis, electric bikes, and public transportation all work sometimes, and they can be usefully combined.

skybrian 3y ago

You don’t necessarily need “most people” to have a big and growing business, though. Getting electric cars into the garages of people in suburban and rural areas is still a pretty big market, and in these places there is often room to install solar panels. That will reduce load on the grid, which can be used for other purposes, including electric car charging in cities. Also, maybe we shouldn’t expect one kind of transportation to dominate like happened for cars? There can be different solutions for different use cases. Driverless taxis, electric bikes, and public transportation all work sometimes, and they can be usefully combined.