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Today I posted this https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35840591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35840591 to HN. It is a YouTube video with some straightf

by todd8 3y ago

Today I posted this https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35840591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35840591 to HN. It is a YouTube video with some straightforward statistics that, in my opinion, imply a very rough road ahead for Solar and Wind. The basic problem confronting us is the need for so many mined materials to build future solar, wind, and storage facilities. It's really quite daunting.

Gwypaas 3y ago
Capitalism fixes that if the product is something consumers demand. Is the material too expensive then more production are brought online and alternatives are found, like cobalt being replaced in batteries. The mineral reserves figures usually touted can be seen as the working inventory given the economic conditions today. USGS have a good explanation > Reserves data are dynamic. They may be reduced as ore is mined and (or) the feasibility of extraction diminishes, or more commonly, they may continue to increase as additional deposits (known or recently discovered) are developed, or currently exploited deposits are more thoroughly explored and (or) new technology or economic variables improve their economic feasibility. Reserves may be considered a working inventory of mining companies’ supplies of an economically extractable mineral commodity. As such, the magnitude of that inventory is necessarily limited by many considerations, including cost of drilling, taxes, price of the mineral commodity being mined, and the demand for it. Reserves will be developed to the point of business needs and geologic limitations of economic ore grade and tonnage. > For example, in 1970, identified and undiscovered world copper resources were estimated to contain 1.6 billion metric tons of copper, with reserves of about 280 million tons of copper. Since then, about 600 million tons of copper have been produced worldwide, but world copper reserves in 2021 were estimated to be 880 million tons of copper, more than triple those in 1970, despite the depletion by mining of much more than the 1970 estimated reserves. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes... Appendix C to 2022 Lithium Statistics and Information. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/lithium-statistics-and-information https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-c...
pydry 3y ago
The road ahead was always going to be daunting. It's just far longer, harder and more expensive if with nuclear power. It's great if you want to share costs with the nuclear military industrial complex or you might need to build a nuke in a hurry one day. Not so much if you just want to decarbonize as cheaply and quickly as possible.
Schroedingersat 3y ago
The materials for a gwh/yr of solar are a strict subset of the materials for a gwh/yr of LWR with the exception of silver (which is about 4x). Except the solar is improving rapidly and doesn't need to be buried for decades at EOL.

by todd8 3y ago

Gwypaas 3y ago

Capitalism fixes that if the product is something consumers demand. Is the material too expensive then more production are brought online and alternatives are found, like cobalt being replaced in batteries. The mineral reserves figures usually touted can be seen as the working inventory given the economic conditions today. USGS have a good explanation > Reserves data are dynamic. They may be reduced as ore is mined and (or) the feasibility of extraction diminishes, or more commonly, they may continue to increase as additional deposits (known or recently discovered) are developed, or currently exploited deposits are more thoroughly explored and (or) new technology or economic variables improve their economic feasibility. Reserves may be considered a working inventory of mining companies’ supplies of an economically extractable mineral commodity. As such, the magnitude of that inventory is necessarily limited by many considerations, including cost of drilling, taxes, price of the mineral commodity being mined, and the demand for it. Reserves will be developed to the point of business needs and geologic limitations of economic ore grade and tonnage. > For example, in 1970, identified and undiscovered world copper resources were estimated to contain 1.6 billion metric tons of copper, with reserves of about 280 million tons of copper. Since then, about 600 million tons of copper have been produced worldwide, but world copper reserves in 2021 were estimated to be 880 million tons of copper, more than triple those in 1970, despite the depletion by mining of much more than the 1970 estimated reserves. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes... Appendix C to 2022 Lithium Statistics and Information. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/lithium-statistics-and-information https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-c...

pydry 3y ago

The road ahead was always going to be daunting. It's just far longer, harder and more expensive if with nuclear power. It's great if you want to share costs with the nuclear military industrial complex or you might need to build a nuke in a hurry one day. Not so much if you just want to decarbonize as cheaply and quickly as possible.

Schroedingersat 3y ago

The materials for a gwh/yr of solar are a strict subset of the materials for a gwh/yr of LWR with the exception of silver (which is about 4x). Except the solar is improving rapidly and doesn't need to be buried for decades at EOL.