4 ms·
The wording is weird.. "What is the probability of heads?". If they wake her up with a coin toss and ask her "what is the probability of a (totally unrelated)
by netsharc 4y ago
The wording is weird.. "What is the probability of heads?".
If they wake her up with a coin toss and ask her "what is the probability of a (totally unrelated) thrown dice landing on the number 6?", the answer to this math problem is 1/6. But in this problem "probability" is related to the results of the coin throws?
The wording in the Wikipedia seems better: "What is your credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?". Bloody "journalists" ruining everything.
Edit: in the original German language article [2] the question is in past tense ("showed" instead of "shows"). Seems to be make more sense. Do I shake my fist at the journalist or the translator now?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem
[2] https://www.spektrum.de/kolumne/welche-wahrscheinlichkeit-hat-der-muenzwurf-beim-dornroeschen-problem/2125275 https://www.spektrum.de/kolumne/welche-wahrscheinlichkeit-ha...
- carlmr 4y agoIt's the awoken part. She's sleeping beauty, and keeps on sleeping if you don't wake her up. The important part is that she only awakes on Mondays or Tuesdays when you actively wake her up. So since she's twice as likely to be woken up when the coin showed tails the conditional probability from her perspective for tails is higher. I don't think the shows or showed part makes the big difference here assuming you left the coin as is after throwing it. It's the conditional probability part. But they did try to explain it in a mysterious click-bait way. I'm pretty sure there aren't many Mathematicians kept awake by this at night.