8 ms·

For folks that are interested, the discussion at /r/selfdrivingcars [1] picked out some of the salient numbers. Brad Templeton also did his own write up at [2].

by boulos 3y ago

For folks that are interested, the discussion at /r/selfdrivingcars [1] picked out some of the salient numbers. Brad Templeton also did his own write up at [2]. I mainly hope that people take away that this service exists now. You can download the app and just use it in Phoenix. As mentioned in the post, we're doing thousands of trips per week of non-employee rides. There are some great (and not so great!) examples posted to /r/selfdrivingcars from time to time if you want to see them. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/137hr3l/waymo_doubles_robotaxi_service_area_in_phoenix_in/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/137hr3l/wa... [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/05/04/waymo-hits-2-million-no-driver-miles-and-greatly-expands-robotaxi-zone-can-it-replace-your-car https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/05/04/waymo-...

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
Does each city have an independent wait list? Or once you’re in, you’re in?
- ra7 3y ago
  Seems to be waitlist per city. But they only have a waitlist in SF currently. Phoenix is fully open to the public and LA is employee-only so far, so no waitlist open there yet.
- boulos 3y ago
  We currently only operate the public service in Phoenix and San Francisco. There isn't a wait list in Phoenix, anyone can ride, but there is in San Francisco. So... technically they're currently independent. But our goal in any new area would be to focus on the people that live there, because they would use the service regularly. Of course, the broader goal is no waitlist anywhere :).
  - Camillo 3y ago
    Is the waitlist FIFO or does it prioritize? For example, suppose a Googler signed up for the waitlist, and since they already have ~all Googlers on it, they won't get access before 2026. Could they get access faster by quitting their job, deleting their Waymo account, then re-enrolling as unemployed?
isubkhankulov 3y ago
Thanks for those links. This claim in the Forbes article doesn't make sense to me: "It doesn’t need the money but it does want to learn from how riders interact with a service they are paying for." Alphabet has been pressured to show more tangible financial results by activist shareholders[1]. Waymo has 2,500 employees. Waymo's annual budget for headcount alone include stock based compensation is over $1B by my estimate. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/6daa5d29-8595-4630-a633-eb1f8b138446 https://www.ft.com/content/6daa5d29-8595-4630-a633-eb1f8b138...
- jeffbee 3y ago
  Imagine believing that anyone at Alphabet gives a fuck what a 5% shareholder wants.
  - rcme 3y ago
    Apparently someone does. Activist investors are the reason for Google’s layoffs.
    - wepple 3y ago
      Citation (other than Business Insider) needed
      - rcme 3y ago
        How about the Wall Street Journal? https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-investor-calls-on-google-parent-alphabet-to-slash-costs-11668528859 https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-investor-calls-on-goog... Or The Guardian? https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/15/major-investor-calls-on-google-owner-to-aggressively-cut-staff-and-pay https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/15/major-inv... > “We are writing to express our view that the cost base of Alphabet is too high and management needs to take aggressive action,” TCI wrote in the letter, signed by managing director Christopher Hohn. “The company has too many employees and the cost per employee is too high.”
mustacheemperor 3y ago
I really hope that I can get access in San Francisco soon. The closest grocery store to me in Bayview is a 30 minute walk across one of SF's riskiest pedestrian intersections and my neighborhood's only bus service is a corporate shuttle. Cruise just announced coverage for the "entire city" but it won't actually include my neighborhood. I've been well aware of Waymo for a long time, and been on the waiting list for over a year now! I've actually seen people getting in and out of Waymos near my apartment, and my limited experiencing riding the Cruise beta has me really excited to someday traverse SF in self driving vehicles. Can't wait.
- gonehome 3y ago
  Cruise’s “entire city” coverage is currently only for employees. The beta coverage is sunset to pacific heights and only 10pm to 530am - making it effectively useless.
  - zamnos 3y ago
    More specifically, it excludes the night club district which is when the 10pm to 5am service time would actually be in demand.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - gonehome 3y ago
      Yeah it's weird for me that the CEO bragged about it on Twitter as if it was open to everyone, when it's only open to employees? I'm in the beta but still haven't tried it because unless you live directly in the zone it operates it's not useful. Even then rarely am I ubering in the middle of the night anyway. As is, I'd have to take an uber to the zone it operates in after 10pm, then get a cruise point to point in an area where everything is closed, then take an uber home.
AndrewDucker 3y ago
How well does this scale? At some point do you just turn on the tap, buy a million cars and cover the whole country, or are you reliant on ongoing large amounts of support for the cars which means that the costs for expansion make it currently non viable?
- mdorazio 3y ago
  Not OP, but I work in the industry. It's not as simple as opening the tap for three primary reasons: 1) localization, 2) operations, 3) cost. Localization means that you cannot generally (with current-state tech) ship a bunch of cars to a new city and turn them loose. You have to do a large amount of detailed mapping, characterization, and training in every area you want to launch. That's why you see all the self-driving companies slowly expanding availability areas after their test cars have been running around for many thousands of miles in the area. Operations is all the stuff that's not the car driving itself around. The cars need a home base where they can park when not in use, recharge, get cleaned, have sensors checked and calibrated, and get maintenance when needed (scales linearly with number of vehicles). The cars are also not 100% flawlessly handling every situation and rider issue - there still needs to be human support in the loop, both in terms of a dedicated remote support team (scales linearly with number of rides) and in terms of local rescue people to get cars when they're really stuck (scales linearly with number of vehicles). Cost is the cost of vehicles, tech (ADKs), and operations. Waymo and Cruise are currently operating at absolutely massive loss and will continue to do so for years. It's generally not a great idea to open the faucet on a money-losing business until you at least have a solid way to get to profitability. Yes, I know, Uber and other giant startups basically never made money, etc. etc. but the market has changed and owners are looking to decrease costs of tech and operations before really scaling up. It's going to take a couple years still.
  - boulos 3y ago
    Good summary! (I was away for a bit) I would only caution that people shouldn't overindex on mapping costs. When you're talking about entering a major metro area, you need lots of vehicles and depots and so on anyway just to provide the eventual service. So the upfront initial map build out is certainly a component of starting in a new geography, but I think people assume it is somehow dominant. It's not. The current approach then for ride hailing, which requires depots, means that: > just turn on the tap, buy a million cars and cover the whole country is not happening anytime soon.

by boulos 3y ago

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

Does each city have an independent wait list? Or once you’re in, you’re in?

ra7 3y ago
Seems to be waitlist per city. But they only have a waitlist in SF currently. Phoenix is fully open to the public and LA is employee-only so far, so no waitlist open there yet.
boulos 3y ago
We currently only operate the public service in Phoenix and San Francisco. There isn't a wait list in Phoenix, anyone can ride, but there is in San Francisco. So... technically they're currently independent. But our goal in any new area would be to focus on the people that live there, because they would use the service regularly. Of course, the broader goal is no waitlist anywhere :).
- Camillo 3y ago
  Is the waitlist FIFO or does it prioritize? For example, suppose a Googler signed up for the waitlist, and since they already have ~all Googlers on it, they won't get access before 2026. Could they get access faster by quitting their job, deleting their Waymo account, then re-enrolling as unemployed?

isubkhankulov 3y ago

Thanks for those links. This claim in the Forbes article doesn't make sense to me: "It doesn’t need the money but it does want to learn from how riders interact with a service they are paying for." Alphabet has been pressured to show more tangible financial results by activist shareholders[1]. Waymo has 2,500 employees. Waymo's annual budget for headcount alone include stock based compensation is over $1B by my estimate. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/6daa5d29-8595-4630-a633-eb1f8b138446 https://www.ft.com/content/6daa5d29-8595-4630-a633-eb1f8b138...

jeffbee 3y ago
Imagine believing that anyone at Alphabet gives a fuck what a 5% shareholder wants.
- rcme 3y ago
  Apparently someone does. Activist investors are the reason for Google’s layoffs.
  - wepple 3y ago
    Citation (other than Business Insider) needed
    - rcme 3y ago
      How about the Wall Street Journal? https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-investor-calls-on-google-parent-alphabet-to-slash-costs-11668528859 https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-investor-calls-on-goog... Or The Guardian? https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/15/major-investor-calls-on-google-owner-to-aggressively-cut-staff-and-pay https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/15/major-inv... > “We are writing to express our view that the cost base of Alphabet is too high and management needs to take aggressive action,” TCI wrote in the letter, signed by managing director Christopher Hohn. “The company has too many employees and the cost per employee is too high.”

mustacheemperor 3y ago

I really hope that I can get access in San Francisco soon. The closest grocery store to me in Bayview is a 30 minute walk across one of SF's riskiest pedestrian intersections and my neighborhood's only bus service is a corporate shuttle. Cruise just announced coverage for the "entire city" but it won't actually include my neighborhood. I've been well aware of Waymo for a long time, and been on the waiting list for over a year now! I've actually seen people getting in and out of Waymos near my apartment, and my limited experiencing riding the Cruise beta has me really excited to someday traverse SF in self driving vehicles. Can't wait.

gonehome 3y ago
Cruise’s “entire city” coverage is currently only for employees. The beta coverage is sunset to pacific heights and only 10pm to 530am - making it effectively useless.
- zamnos 3y ago
  More specifically, it excludes the night club district which is when the 10pm to 5am service time would actually be in demand.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - gonehome 3y ago
    Yeah it's weird for me that the CEO bragged about it on Twitter as if it was open to everyone, when it's only open to employees? I'm in the beta but still haven't tried it because unless you live directly in the zone it operates it's not useful. Even then rarely am I ubering in the middle of the night anyway. As is, I'd have to take an uber to the zone it operates in after 10pm, then get a cruise point to point in an area where everything is closed, then take an uber home.

AndrewDucker 3y ago

How well does this scale? At some point do you just turn on the tap, buy a million cars and cover the whole country, or are you reliant on ongoing large amounts of support for the cars which means that the costs for expansion make it currently non viable?

mdorazio 3y ago
Not OP, but I work in the industry. It's not as simple as opening the tap for three primary reasons: 1) localization, 2) operations, 3) cost. Localization means that you cannot generally (with current-state tech) ship a bunch of cars to a new city and turn them loose. You have to do a large amount of detailed mapping, characterization, and training in every area you want to launch. That's why you see all the self-driving companies slowly expanding availability areas after their test cars have been running around for many thousands of miles in the area. Operations is all the stuff that's not the car driving itself around. The cars need a home base where they can park when not in use, recharge, get cleaned, have sensors checked and calibrated, and get maintenance when needed (scales linearly with number of vehicles). The cars are also not 100% flawlessly handling every situation and rider issue - there still needs to be human support in the loop, both in terms of a dedicated remote support team (scales linearly with number of rides) and in terms of local rescue people to get cars when they're really stuck (scales linearly with number of vehicles). Cost is the cost of vehicles, tech (ADKs), and operations. Waymo and Cruise are currently operating at absolutely massive loss and will continue to do so for years. It's generally not a great idea to open the faucet on a money-losing business until you at least have a solid way to get to profitability. Yes, I know, Uber and other giant startups basically never made money, etc. etc. but the market has changed and owners are looking to decrease costs of tech and operations before really scaling up. It's going to take a couple years still.
- boulos 3y ago
  Good summary! (I was away for a bit) I would only caution that people shouldn't overindex on mapping costs. When you're talking about entering a major metro area, you need lots of vehicles and depots and so on anyway just to provide the eventual service. So the upfront initial map build out is certainly a component of starting in a new geography, but I think people assume it is somehow dominant. It's not. The current approach then for ride hailing, which requires depots, means that: > just turn on the tap, buy a million cars and cover the whole country is not happening anytime soon.