There's a lot of lags in the system as well. Like another comment mentioned housing starts have fallen off, but there's still work on ones already being built.

There's a lot of lags in the system as well. Like another comment mentioned housing starts have fallen off, but there's still work on ones already being built. The bad businesses/investments that have been propped up by zero interest rate financing also will need to hit their loan maturity dates for them to adjust upwards. It is normally 6-12 months after the Fed stops raising rates that there's a recession. And the big recovery from covid right now is hospitality.