The actual election that happened is not a simulation, at least not the same kind of simulation that was run by Nate. That qualitative difference is fundamenta

The actual election that happened is not a simulation, at least not the same kind of simulation that was run by Nate. That qualitative difference is fundamental. It suffers from the same problem when results of simulations are applied to the "real world". The quality of the simulation is paramount, and there's no way to determine whether the simulation is good enough besides assertions that the simulations are really sophisticated and Nate is very smart.