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France and Finland have had excessive difficulty with their EPR. My hypothesis is that modern economies with high wages will simply not be able to build a nucl

France and Finland have had excessive difficulty with their EPR. My hypothesis is that modern economies with high wages will simply not be able to build a nuclear reactor economically. It appears to require a certain amount of 20th century technological advancement, but not so much economic advancement that labor costs are too high. France had a much better track record with nuclear in their first round of building. France can also build large construction projects without the massive cost overruns that the US has had. But they can't seem to get a next gen reactor built.

bjornsing 4y ago
Interesting hypothesis…
natmaka 4y ago
The first EPR project in France (Flamanville-3) had problems documented in an official report (dubbed 'Folz', per the name of its main author), sadly AFAIK it wasn't translated into English: https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville A piece about it: https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-assessment-of-the-failure-of-the-flamanville-epr/ https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-as... This study may also offer some hints: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510003526 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...
Reason077 4y ago
It's a bit simplistic to blame only labour costs. Large, complex civil projects often have cost and schedule overruns because contractors know they're going to get paid anyway so are incentivised to make the project slower and more expensive. Smaller, simpler projects don't tend to have the same issues because contractors know they can be replaced easily if they fail.
- pfdietz 4y ago
  Renewable projects also can be rolled out in stages, so if the contractors are scammers it shows up early.
sofixa 4y ago
Because those were the first EPRs ever. Now that most caveats and issues are discovered, next ones should be drastically faster and easier. > France can also build large construction projects without the massive cost overruns that the US has had Not always, some easily go overboard, like with the Parisian Philharmonic, or the absolutely massive Grand Paris Express (~200km of new high capacity metro lines around Paris) which has seen the budget go up from an original estimate of 19 billion to 35 billion (euros). Completely normal considering the scale and complexity, but still.
- Gwypaas 4y ago
  Hinkley Point C, started 12 years later, is going swimmingly I hear! Going to cost the consumers ~$150/MWh and it is starting to look likely that EDF even at that incredibly high price takes a loss on it. > Since construction began in March 2017, the project has been subject to several delays, including some caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,[10] and this has resulted in significant budget overruns. As of May 2022, the project is two years late and the expected cost is £25–26 billion,[11] 50% more than the original budget from 2016. It is currently planned to be commissioned in June 2027 and has a projected lifetime of 60 years. In February 2023, EDF announced that costs would rise to £32.7bn and completion would be delayed by a further 15 months to September 2028.[2][12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...
  - sofixa 4y ago
    Started before all problems had been fixed with Flamanville and Olkiluoto, it's a part of the initial generation.
    - Gwypaas 4y ago
      Is not the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
      - sofixa 4y ago
przemo_li 4y ago
French scenario could have been avoided is much better loans where secured. Delays skyrocketed costs for to fat % on those financing agreements. Which is 101 of big projects anyway. Hard to understand why french project wasn't deemed to risky to investors.

bjornsing 4y ago

Interesting hypothesis…

natmaka 4y ago

The first EPR project in France (Flamanville-3) had problems documented in an official report (dubbed 'Folz', per the name of its main author), sadly AFAIK it wasn't translated into English: https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville A piece about it: https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-assessment-of-the-failure-of-the-flamanville-epr/ https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-as... This study may also offer some hints: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510003526 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...

Reason077 4y ago

It's a bit simplistic to blame only labour costs. Large, complex civil projects often have cost and schedule overruns because contractors know they're going to get paid anyway so are incentivised to make the project slower and more expensive. Smaller, simpler projects don't tend to have the same issues because contractors know they can be replaced easily if they fail.

pfdietz 4y ago
Renewable projects also can be rolled out in stages, so if the contractors are scammers it shows up early.

sofixa 4y ago

Because those were the first EPRs ever. Now that most caveats and issues are discovered, next ones should be drastically faster and easier. > France can also build large construction projects without the massive cost overruns that the US has had Not always, some easily go overboard, like with the Parisian Philharmonic, or the absolutely massive Grand Paris Express (~200km of new high capacity metro lines around Paris) which has seen the budget go up from an original estimate of 19 billion to 35 billion (euros). Completely normal considering the scale and complexity, but still.

Gwypaas 4y ago
Hinkley Point C, started 12 years later, is going swimmingly I hear! Going to cost the consumers ~$150/MWh and it is starting to look likely that EDF even at that incredibly high price takes a loss on it. > Since construction began in March 2017, the project has been subject to several delays, including some caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,[10] and this has resulted in significant budget overruns. As of May 2022, the project is two years late and the expected cost is £25–26 billion,[11] 50% more than the original budget from 2016. It is currently planned to be commissioned in June 2027 and has a projected lifetime of 60 years. In February 2023, EDF announced that costs would rise to £32.7bn and completion would be delayed by a further 15 months to September 2028.[2][12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...
- sofixa 4y ago
  Started before all problems had been fixed with Flamanville and Olkiluoto, it's a part of the initial generation.
  - Gwypaas 4y ago
    Is not the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
    - sofixa 4y ago

przemo_li 4y ago

French scenario could have been avoided is much better loans where secured. Delays skyrocketed costs for to fat % on those financing agreements. Which is 101 of big projects anyway. Hard to understand why french project wasn't deemed to risky to investors.