4 ms·

What's sad is that it's mainly the US that has problems with this. China has managed to bring multiple of this reactor design to fruition while the US still scr

What's sad is that it's mainly the US that has problems with this. China has managed to bring multiple of this reactor design to fruition while the US still screws around with building just two. I live in Georgia and the almost decade of overruns and corruption are being about to be paid for by Georgia Power customers via rate hikes.

epistasis 3y ago
France and Finland have had excessive difficulty with their EPR. My hypothesis is that modern economies with high wages will simply not be able to build a nuclear reactor economically. It appears to require a certain amount of 20th century technological advancement, but not so much economic advancement that labor costs are too high. France had a much better track record with nuclear in their first round of building. France can also build large construction projects without the massive cost overruns that the US has had. But they can't seem to get a next gen reactor built.
- bjornsing 3y ago
  Interesting hypothesis…
- natmaka 3y ago
  The first EPR project in France (Flamanville-3) had problems documented in an official report (dubbed 'Folz', per the name of its main author), sadly AFAIK it wasn't translated into English: https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville A piece about it: https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-assessment-of-the-failure-of-the-flamanville-epr/ https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-as... This study may also offer some hints: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510003526 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...
- Reason077 3y ago
  It's a bit simplistic to blame only labour costs. Large, complex civil projects often have cost and schedule overruns because contractors know they're going to get paid anyway so are incentivised to make the project slower and more expensive. Smaller, simpler projects don't tend to have the same issues because contractors know they can be replaced easily if they fail.
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    Renewable projects also can be rolled out in stages, so if the contractors are scammers it shows up early.
- sofixa 3y ago
  Because those were the first EPRs ever. Now that most caveats and issues are discovered, next ones should be drastically faster and easier. > France can also build large construction projects without the massive cost overruns that the US has had Not always, some easily go overboard, like with the Parisian Philharmonic, or the absolutely massive Grand Paris Express (~200km of new high capacity metro lines around Paris) which has seen the budget go up from an original estimate of 19 billion to 35 billion (euros). Completely normal considering the scale and complexity, but still.
  - Gwypaas 3y ago
    Hinkley Point C, started 12 years later, is going swimmingly I hear! Going to cost the consumers ~$150/MWh and it is starting to look likely that EDF even at that incredibly high price takes a loss on it. > Since construction began in March 2017, the project has been subject to several delays, including some caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,[10] and this has resulted in significant budget overruns. As of May 2022, the project is two years late and the expected cost is £25–26 billion,[11] 50% more than the original budget from 2016. It is currently planned to be commissioned in June 2027 and has a projected lifetime of 60 years. In February 2023, EDF announced that costs would rise to £32.7bn and completion would be delayed by a further 15 months to September 2028.[2][12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...
    - sofixa 3y ago
      Started before all problems had been fixed with Flamanville and Olkiluoto, it's a part of the initial generation.
      - Gwypaas 3y ago
        Is not the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
        sofixa 3y ago
- przemo_li 3y ago
  French scenario could have been avoided is much better loans where secured. Delays skyrocketed costs for to fat % on those financing agreements. Which is 101 of big projects anyway. Hard to understand why french project wasn't deemed to risky to investors.

epistasis 3y ago

France and Finland have had excessive difficulty with their EPR. My hypothesis is that modern economies with high wages will simply not be able to build a nuclear reactor economically. It appears to require a certain amount of 20th century technological advancement, but not so much economic advancement that labor costs are too high. France had a much better track record with nuclear in their first round of building. France can also build large construction projects without the massive cost overruns that the US has had. But they can't seem to get a next gen reactor built.

bjornsing 3y ago
Interesting hypothesis…
natmaka 3y ago
The first EPR project in France (Flamanville-3) had problems documented in an official report (dubbed 'Folz', per the name of its main author), sadly AFAIK it wasn't translated into English: https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville https://www.economie.gouv.fr/rapport-epr-flamanville A piece about it: https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-assessment-of-the-failure-of-the-flamanville-epr/ https://www.archyde.com/the-folz-report-draws-up-a-severe-as... This study may also offer some hints: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510003526 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...
Reason077 3y ago
It's a bit simplistic to blame only labour costs. Large, complex civil projects often have cost and schedule overruns because contractors know they're going to get paid anyway so are incentivised to make the project slower and more expensive. Smaller, simpler projects don't tend to have the same issues because contractors know they can be replaced easily if they fail.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  Renewable projects also can be rolled out in stages, so if the contractors are scammers it shows up early.
sofixa 3y ago
Because those were the first EPRs ever. Now that most caveats and issues are discovered, next ones should be drastically faster and easier. > France can also build large construction projects without the massive cost overruns that the US has had Not always, some easily go overboard, like with the Parisian Philharmonic, or the absolutely massive Grand Paris Express (~200km of new high capacity metro lines around Paris) which has seen the budget go up from an original estimate of 19 billion to 35 billion (euros). Completely normal considering the scale and complexity, but still.
- Gwypaas 3y ago
  Hinkley Point C, started 12 years later, is going swimmingly I hear! Going to cost the consumers ~$150/MWh and it is starting to look likely that EDF even at that incredibly high price takes a loss on it. > Since construction began in March 2017, the project has been subject to several delays, including some caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,[10] and this has resulted in significant budget overruns. As of May 2022, the project is two years late and the expected cost is £25–26 billion,[11] 50% more than the original budget from 2016. It is currently planned to be commissioned in June 2027 and has a projected lifetime of 60 years. In February 2023, EDF announced that costs would rise to £32.7bn and completion would be delayed by a further 15 months to September 2028.[2][12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...
  - sofixa 3y ago
    Started before all problems had been fixed with Flamanville and Olkiluoto, it's a part of the initial generation.
    - Gwypaas 3y ago
      Is not the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
      - sofixa 3y ago
przemo_li 3y ago
French scenario could have been avoided is much better loans where secured. Delays skyrocketed costs for to fat % on those financing agreements. Which is 101 of big projects anyway. Hard to understand why french project wasn't deemed to risky to investors.