5 ms·

I love the way this progressed from, latent disease doesn't happen to prove to me tomatoes don't cause turbo-cancer. There's so much text there that its really

• arcticbull 3y ago
  It really doesn't. I keep illustrating the premise that you can replace time with sample count to make a best-effort, reasonable estimate of the long-tail risk of normally distributed outcomes. The ones to which you are alluding. Ideally, in a way you appreciate - or at the least understand. I'm also saying that beyond that reasonable estimate based on the 300+ years of vaccine development behind us (and 50+ years of development of mRNA and viral vector vaccines) you are asking scientists to prove a negative which nobody can do. That's not the standard we hold literally anything else to, nor should we.
  • peteradio 3y ago
    I'm sorry for the snark and I do really appreciate the back and forth. I guess what I don't grasp is how we are confident that these are all normally distributed. We don't really know what these distributions look like until we resolve them in the real world. For things that could irreversibly fuck up a population it would seem to me you'd want to take that process tediously slow. I guess what you are saying is "YES goddamnit we are already doin it!" But still we are testing the whole package live without much of a holdback. The whole process felt imprudent for the likes of Covid.