5 ms·

Does anyone have a sense of how bad things really are for the US economy and what the next 12/18 months are going to look like? Seems like every day all I see i

by neom 4y ago

Does anyone have a sense of how bad things really are for the US economy and what the next 12/18 months are going to look like? Seems like every day all I see is doom and gloom, I've not seen a bright spot in quite some time... it's becoming increasingly difficult for me to get a sense of where things are. People keep saying things are going to get worse, I keep reading things are going to get worse, friends are literally committing suicide. Feels like twilight zone.

cxf12 4y ago
I'm in the BI space. I'll answer anecdotally since I pay attention to the job boards in the US quite a bit. I've got no hard data for my assertion full disclosure. For the last 3 months entry level work has dried up. I'm seeing very few postings for underling positions. Mid level 4-7 years jobs have markedly declined as I'm seeing fewer postings across this same time span month over month. 7+ years experience seems to be flat, but not down as the other tranches of work. You asked for a sense. That's my sense.
- samstave 4y ago
  DO you publish any of this info anyplace?
- moneywoes 4y ago
  What job boards do you check? What’s a BI position like
- nbaugh1 4y ago
  As someone with just about 3yoe actively searching for the last 3 months, I agree with this
0zemp2c 4y ago
doom and gloom? all major indexes are still trading at lofty values "safety" stocks like AAPL are at or near all-time highs real estate has budged slightly, but a rounding error off of the gains made in the last few years even employment...tech hiring is getting hit but lots of other employers in retail, food & beverage are reporting record hiring and even wage increases if there is a "crash", it hasn't happened yet you may just end up with a sucky decade of stagflation...you are poorer every day, but just not dramatically so
qbasic_forever 4y ago
Separate your personal happiness from your job. Who knows what the future holds, maybe it won't be working in tech. Be ready for anything IMHO. It might get better, or it might not any time soon. But the sun will come up again tomorrow, and the day after and after etc.
- alexvoda 4y ago
  I can understand trying to have a calming discourse whose message pretty much amounts to "c'est la vie". But even if that is not your intention, it can come out as dismissive. Many people do worry about the future for very good reasons.
  - qbasic_forever 4y ago
    How does it help your situation to worry about something you cannot control or influence in any way whatsoever? Plan for the future, good or bad, but don't dwell on what you can't control.
    - the_only_law 4y ago
      > How does it help your situation to worry about something you cannot control or influence in any way whatsoever? They affect me. I don’t give a fuck what the sun does everyday if I can’t pay my rent.
      - ambicapter 4y ago
        Worrying won't pay your rent either, is the point.
        the_only_law 4y ago
        No, but it’ll certainly make me more likely to do things that might pay my rent. Certainly compared to a “la de da nothing is wrong xd it is what it is” attitude.
rawgabbit 4y ago
The explanation that is circulating is that everyone is making decisions based on where inflation is headed. If inflation is not tamed, business leaders will seek to extract more cost cuts (more layoffs). The other headline is that LLM and ChatGPT is reshaping the tech landscape. Tech companies are laying off engineers so they can hire AI/LLM engineers to compete with ChatGPT. Based on my limited knowledge, OpenAI is head and shoulders above everyone else. Google's Bard is a distant second.
ejb999 4y ago
We posted a job back in oct/nov for a senior tech position at a very large, but non-tech company - we got 3 applicants/resumes, 2 of which were out of the country and not considered. The one got hired (and was a good hire). In Jan/Feb posted the exact same job (an additional position) and got over 300 resumes including from ex-FAANG folks who we generally don't see applying). Something sure has changed imo, and I also personally do believe things are about to get much, much worse for many people.
pphysch 4y ago
By far the best historical analogy is the decaying USSR. We have an elite class that has been totally spoiled by the last 40 years of triumphalism, and lacks vision. QoL for most Americans will continue to drop to match USA's precipitous decline in geopolitical status, but even Russia rebounded after just a couple decades. Hey, we got a bunch of O&G as well.

by neom 4y ago

cxf12 4y ago

I'm in the BI space. I'll answer anecdotally since I pay attention to the job boards in the US quite a bit. I've got no hard data for my assertion full disclosure. For the last 3 months entry level work has dried up. I'm seeing very few postings for underling positions. Mid level 4-7 years jobs have markedly declined as I'm seeing fewer postings across this same time span month over month. 7+ years experience seems to be flat, but not down as the other tranches of work. You asked for a sense. That's my sense.

samstave 4y ago
DO you publish any of this info anyplace?
moneywoes 4y ago
What job boards do you check? What’s a BI position like
nbaugh1 4y ago
As someone with just about 3yoe actively searching for the last 3 months, I agree with this

0zemp2c 4y ago

doom and gloom? all major indexes are still trading at lofty values "safety" stocks like AAPL are at or near all-time highs real estate has budged slightly, but a rounding error off of the gains made in the last few years even employment...tech hiring is getting hit but lots of other employers in retail, food & beverage are reporting record hiring and even wage increases if there is a "crash", it hasn't happened yet you may just end up with a sucky decade of stagflation...you are poorer every day, but just not dramatically so

qbasic_forever 4y ago

Separate your personal happiness from your job. Who knows what the future holds, maybe it won't be working in tech. Be ready for anything IMHO. It might get better, or it might not any time soon. But the sun will come up again tomorrow, and the day after and after etc.

alexvoda 4y ago
I can understand trying to have a calming discourse whose message pretty much amounts to "c'est la vie". But even if that is not your intention, it can come out as dismissive. Many people do worry about the future for very good reasons.
- qbasic_forever 4y ago
  How does it help your situation to worry about something you cannot control or influence in any way whatsoever? Plan for the future, good or bad, but don't dwell on what you can't control.
  - the_only_law 4y ago
    > How does it help your situation to worry about something you cannot control or influence in any way whatsoever? They affect me. I don’t give a fuck what the sun does everyday if I can’t pay my rent.
    - ambicapter 4y ago
      Worrying won't pay your rent either, is the point.
      - the_only_law 4y ago
        No, but it’ll certainly make me more likely to do things that might pay my rent. Certainly compared to a “la de da nothing is wrong xd it is what it is” attitude.

rawgabbit 4y ago

The explanation that is circulating is that everyone is making decisions based on where inflation is headed. If inflation is not tamed, business leaders will seek to extract more cost cuts (more layoffs). The other headline is that LLM and ChatGPT is reshaping the tech landscape. Tech companies are laying off engineers so they can hire AI/LLM engineers to compete with ChatGPT. Based on my limited knowledge, OpenAI is head and shoulders above everyone else. Google's Bard is a distant second.

ejb999 4y ago

We posted a job back in oct/nov for a senior tech position at a very large, but non-tech company - we got 3 applicants/resumes, 2 of which were out of the country and not considered. The one got hired (and was a good hire). In Jan/Feb posted the exact same job (an additional position) and got over 300 resumes including from ex-FAANG folks who we generally don't see applying). Something sure has changed imo, and I also personally do believe things are about to get much, much worse for many people.

pphysch 4y ago

By far the best historical analogy is the decaying USSR. We have an elite class that has been totally spoiled by the last 40 years of triumphalism, and lacks vision. QoL for most Americans will continue to drop to match USA's precipitous decline in geopolitical status, but even Russia rebounded after just a couple decades. Hey, we got a bunch of O&G as well.