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Ask HN: Who is going to win the Kentucky Derby?

• retrocryptid 3y ago
  I suspect it will be the horse that comes in first.
• throwawaysalome 3y ago
  [flagged]
  • retrocryptid 3y ago
    Be Nice.
• PaulHoule 3y ago
  The odds (money bet) to win are a good probability estimator.
• Mobil1 3y ago
  Michelle Yu SKINNER #9 as the winner???
• vgeek 3y ago
  Angle of Empire or Verifying. Maybe Mandarin Hero if he draws in. 20 horse fields are chaotic, especially with positioning and horses getting boxed in, bumped, shuffled, going insanely wide into stretch. Forte got a horrible draw, but there hasn't been a better jockey over the past 2-3 years to handle it than Irad Ortiz. The 3/1 (probably ends up going off at 2/1 or worse) isn't that appealing for straight win bets. Maybe key him over those 3? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds - this is a good book that touches on how accurate predictions by groups can be. With horse racing, in aggregate, the wagering favorite wins ~30% of the time (field sizes vary), or one of the top 2 betting choices ~55% of the time.