In my experience 409a valuations for common stock are effectively set based on a discount to preferred and some handwavy math related to "comparable" public mar

In my experience 409a valuations for common stock are effectively set based on a discount to preferred and some handwavy math related to "comparable" public market valuations. So I would expect them to come down, but they will lag 1-ish years behind private preferred round prices. I do think it's somewhat likely that a company would offer to rewrite options at a new lower strike price if employees ask. Of course you'd start all the capital gains clocks again, by probably worth it if the price difference is substantial.