If an AGI means equivalent to a human (not just online, but in full robotic form, even if compute is not done in the body), then Id put 0% in the next 5 years.

If an AGI means equivalent to a human (not just online, but in full robotic form, even if compute is not done in the body), then Id put 0% in the next 5 years. Maybe like 5% in 10 years, but that human will be very much limited, since it will most likely be trained using traditional methods, which means for the physical interaction part it will have to be trained on a representative subset of physical tasks, and just like ChatGPT, it will fall short in areas. If an AGI means that something is sentient enough to be able to rewrite itself to be better, id put 0% in the next 50 years. There needs to be way to run accurate simulations of reality faster than reality, which is a fundamental physics problem as well as a computation one. What is going to happen is more and more efficient information compression that will appear like AI, but under the hood it will basically be just emergent software. It will be totally possible in the future to ask an agent and get a full step by step plan of building a personal VTOL in your garage without specialized equipment, but all that is is just information from different domains rolled into one compression algorithm with efficient language based search.