4 ms·

Folks who are pessimistic on driverless cars appear to move the goals on the last 1% repeatedly. Self driving cars are driving themselves around Phoenix and SF

Folks who are pessimistic on driverless cars appear to move the goals on the last 1% repeatedly. Self driving cars are driving themselves around Phoenix and SF right at this minute.

vajrabum 4y ago
I passed a driverless car from Cruise in San Francisco on my commute just the other day.
svachalek 4y ago
The last 1% is actual self driving. Not "allowed to control the vehicle as long as human supervisor is glued to steering wheel with eyes on road". Or "closely monitored test conditions". We're about 7 years later than Tesla predicted on this already, and not all that much closer even without moving the goalpost an inch.
- danielmarkbruce 4y ago
  In SF and Phoenix, Waymo has cars driving around with no drivers. It's here. Tesla (and maybe Cruise) may well be sucking at it, but Waymo isn't.
status200 4y ago
They are indeed driving around SF this very minute causing unique disruptions, roughly two per day last year: https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2023/01/2023.01.25_ccsf_23.0125_cpuc_cruise_tier_2_advice_letter_protest_002.pdf https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-docume... https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-waymo-stopped-in-street-17890821.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-wa...
- jdminhbg 4y ago
  Guess how many disruptions humans are causing per day in SF
- v0idzer0 4y ago
  I love when people share this stat not realizing they’re proving these vehicles are already better drivers than humans. A human disrupts traffic on the road in front of my home every 10 minutes
  - chrsjxn 4y ago
    That's just a local bias. I used to live where a street turned from two-way to one-way, and people drove the wrong way all the time. But that doesn't change the fact that human beings are extremely safe drivers. NHTSA reports less than 2 deaths per 100 million miles driven each year from 2010 to 2020: https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf
    - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
      Safe compared to Waymo?
      - smcleod 4y ago
        Driverless cars aren't the solution to a lot of the problems their companies market them for. Work and shop local. Build public infrastructure. Mo cars - Way Mo problems.
      - chrsjxn 4y ago
        Feel free to check my math, but Waymo's 2 accidents in 1,000,000 driverless miles (https://blog.waymo.com/2023/02/first-million-rider-only-miles-how.html https://blog.waymo.com/2023/02/first-million-rider-only-mile...) is higher than the rate for human drivers in any of the years from my quick NHTSA stats search. They've had no fatalities, which is great (and certainly better than other "self-driving" car options)! But it's hard to make really good comparisons as long as Waymo is off by a factor of millions of miles.
  - wlonkly 4y ago
    They should take away their driver's license!
- fwungy 4y ago
  Without knowing the VMT of driverless vehicles it's impossible to compare their safety to drivered vehicles.
danaris 4y ago
Call me when they have them driving around Syracuse, NY. In winter.
- danielmarkbruce 4y ago
  If that's the bar, half of the humans in CA, TX and FL can't drive.
  - danaris 4y ago
    sigh This argument again. It's so incredibly obvious that it does not apply, but so many people seem to think "oho, but some humans can't do <thing no AI can do>! That means you think those humans aren't intelligent either!" is such a gotcha. Just about any human can be taught to drive in the snow. The capability is there; the skill just hasn't been developed. Take a Californian to Upstate NY, force them to commute 40 minutes to work for several winters, and they will learn (or they'll die, I guess). Take a self-driving car from LA to Syracuse and force it to drive in snow for years, and all it will do is crash or refuse to try. We do not yet (to the best of my knowledge) know if it will be possible to teach self-driving cars to drive in snow. It seems likely, but it hasn't yet been achieved, and in a field like this, "haven't achieved it yet, despite trying" and "don't know if it can be done" are very close together.

Folks who are pessimistic on driverless cars appear to move the goals on the last 1% repeatedly. Self driving cars are driving themselves around Phoenix and SF right at this minute.

vajrabum 4y ago

I passed a driverless car from Cruise in San Francisco on my commute just the other day.

svachalek 4y ago

The last 1% is actual self driving. Not "allowed to control the vehicle as long as human supervisor is glued to steering wheel with eyes on road". Or "closely monitored test conditions". We're about 7 years later than Tesla predicted on this already, and not all that much closer even without moving the goalpost an inch.

danielmarkbruce 4y ago
In SF and Phoenix, Waymo has cars driving around with no drivers. It's here. Tesla (and maybe Cruise) may well be sucking at it, but Waymo isn't.

status200 4y ago

They are indeed driving around SF this very minute causing unique disruptions, roughly two per day last year: https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2023/01/2023.01.25_ccsf_23.0125_cpuc_cruise_tier_2_advice_letter_protest_002.pdf https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-docume... https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-waymo-stopped-in-street-17890821.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-wa...

jdminhbg 4y ago
Guess how many disruptions humans are causing per day in SF
v0idzer0 4y ago
I love when people share this stat not realizing they’re proving these vehicles are already better drivers than humans. A human disrupts traffic on the road in front of my home every 10 minutes
- chrsjxn 4y ago
  That's just a local bias. I used to live where a street turned from two-way to one-way, and people drove the wrong way all the time. But that doesn't change the fact that human beings are extremely safe drivers. NHTSA reports less than 2 deaths per 100 million miles driven each year from 2010 to 2020: https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf
  - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
    Safe compared to Waymo?
    - smcleod 4y ago
      Driverless cars aren't the solution to a lot of the problems their companies market them for. Work and shop local. Build public infrastructure. Mo cars - Way Mo problems.
    - chrsjxn 4y ago
      Feel free to check my math, but Waymo's 2 accidents in 1,000,000 driverless miles (https://blog.waymo.com/2023/02/first-million-rider-only-miles-how.html https://blog.waymo.com/2023/02/first-million-rider-only-mile...) is higher than the rate for human drivers in any of the years from my quick NHTSA stats search. They've had no fatalities, which is great (and certainly better than other "self-driving" car options)! But it's hard to make really good comparisons as long as Waymo is off by a factor of millions of miles.
- wlonkly 4y ago
  They should take away their driver's license!
fwungy 4y ago
Without knowing the VMT of driverless vehicles it's impossible to compare their safety to drivered vehicles.

danaris 4y ago

Call me when they have them driving around Syracuse, NY. In winter.

danielmarkbruce 4y ago
If that's the bar, half of the humans in CA, TX and FL can't drive.
- danaris 4y ago
  sigh This argument again. It's so incredibly obvious that it does not apply, but so many people seem to think "oho, but some humans can't do <thing no AI can do>! That means you think those humans aren't intelligent either!" is such a gotcha. Just about any human can be taught to drive in the snow. The capability is there; the skill just hasn't been developed. Take a Californian to Upstate NY, force them to commute 40 minutes to work for several winters, and they will learn (or they'll die, I guess). Take a self-driving car from LA to Syracuse and force it to drive in snow for years, and all it will do is crash or refuse to try. We do not yet (to the best of my knowledge) know if it will be possible to teach self-driving cars to drive in snow. It seems likely, but it hasn't yet been achieved, and in a field like this, "haven't achieved it yet, despite trying" and "don't know if it can be done" are very close together.