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The first 80% of AI tasks will be easy enough. The next 20% will be increasingly difficult with the last 1% virtually impossible. Same with driverless cars.
by fwungy 3y ago
The first 80% of AI tasks will be easy enough. The next 20% will be increasingly difficult with the last 1% virtually impossible. Same with driverless cars.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoFolks who are pessimistic on driverless cars appear to move the goals on the last 1% repeatedly. Self driving cars are driving themselves around Phoenix and SF right at this minute.
- vajrabum 3y agoI passed a driverless car from Cruise in San Francisco on my commute just the other day.
- svachalek 3y agoThe last 1% is actual self driving. Not "allowed to control the vehicle as long as human supervisor is glued to steering wheel with eyes on road". Or "closely monitored test conditions". We're about 7 years later than Tesla predicted on this already, and not all that much closer even without moving the goalpost an inch.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoIn SF and Phoenix, Waymo has cars driving around with no drivers. It's here. Tesla (and maybe Cruise) may well be sucking at it, but Waymo isn't.
- status200 3y agoThey are indeed driving around SF this very minute causing unique disruptions, roughly two per day last year: https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2023/01/2023.01.25_ccsf_23.0125_cpuc_cruise_tier_2_advice_letter_protest_002.pdf https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-docume... https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-waymo-stopped-in-street-17890821.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-wa...
- jdminhbg 3y agoGuess how many disruptions humans are causing per day in SF
- v0idzer0 3y agoI love when people share this stat not realizing they’re proving these vehicles are already better drivers than humans. A human disrupts traffic on the road in front of my home every 10 minutes
- chrsjxn 3y agoThat's just a local bias. I used to live where a street turned from two-way to one-way, and people drove the wrong way all the time. But that doesn't change the fact that human beings are extremely safe drivers. NHTSA reports less than 2 deaths per 100 million miles driven each year from 2010 to 2020: https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoSafe compared to Waymo?
- smcleod 3y agoDriverless cars aren't the solution to a lot of the problems their companies market them for. Work and shop local. Build public infrastructure. Mo cars - Way Mo problems.
- chrsjxn 3y agoFeel free to check my math, but Waymo's 2 accidents in 1,000,000 driverless miles (https://blog.waymo.com/2023/02/first-million-rider-only-miles-how.html https://blog.waymo.com/2023/02/first-million-rider-only-mile...) is higher than the rate for human drivers in any of the years from my quick NHTSA stats search. They've had no fatalities, which is great (and certainly better than other "self-driving" car options)! But it's hard to make really good comparisons as long as Waymo is off by a factor of millions of miles.
- danaris 3y agoCall me when they have them driving around Syracuse, NY. In winter.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoIf that's the bar, half of the humans in CA, TX and FL can't drive.
- danaris 3y agosigh This argument again. It's so incredibly obvious that it does not apply, but so many people seem to think "oho, but some humans can't do <thing no AI can do>! That means you think those humans aren't intelligent either!" is such a gotcha. Just about any human can be taught to drive in the snow. The capability is there; the skill just hasn't been developed. Take a Californian to Upstate NY, force them to commute 40 minutes to work for several winters, and they will learn (or they'll die, I guess). Take a self-driving car from LA to Syracuse and force it to drive in snow for years, and all it will do is crash or refuse to try. We do not yet (to the best of my knowledge) know if it will be possible to teach self-driving cars to drive in snow. It seems likely, but it hasn't yet been achieved, and in a field like this, "haven't achieved it yet, despite trying" and "don't know if it can be done" are very close together.