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The real risk of AI actually is related to that, IMO. Vinod Khosla estimated in an event a few weeks ago that 80% of human jobs will be automated in the next 10

The real risk of AI actually is related to that, IMO. Vinod Khosla estimated in an event a few weeks ago that 80% of human jobs will be automated in the next 10-20 years. We’re going to be living in an era of extreme abundance, which in theory could lead to an absolute human utopia. The reality is that our society as it is currently run requires everyone to work in some capacity to earn a living. We’re about to hit a point where that simply is not feasible, because the majority of the jobs are going to be automated. Teaching jobs are on their way out likely aren’t coming back. But with them are going to go most white collar jobs generally, and most blue collar jobs, and before too long self driving will be figured out, and then transportation jobs are gone too. I hope that this meeting is focused around the changes we need to make societally to use this abundance for good, but I know how the slim the chances are of them talking about that, and how even more slim they are that they come up with a solution.

soup10 3y ago
The automation revolution has been "just around the corner" forever. Still hasn't happened, some jobs are lost, some jobs are created, some are displaced, the welfare safety net gets a little bigger.
- taywrobel 3y ago
  Let’s look at another technological timeline to see what progression actually looks like… Jules Verne wrote “Robur the Conquerer” about heavier-than-air flight in 1886. The Wright Brothers first flight was in 1903. The first commercial flight was in 1914. The first trans-Atlantic flight was in 1919. And now the interesting one; the Hindenburg disaster was in 1937. 51 years after science fiction theorized about winged flight, 34 years after it was accomplished, 23 years after it was commercialized… people were still using dirigibles, and it wasn’t going great. And I’m sure the whole time those people were saying “we’ve been promised that flight is just around the corner forever”. So to me the interesting question is where on this general timeline are we at with AI? It’s been theorized, been proven experimentally, is now commercialized. Up next is the “transatlantic” stage where its actual value becomes apparent and it becomes more widely available. We may already be there with GPTs. I’m just hoping we figure out where we are before we hit the Hindenburg point.
- zamnos 3y ago
  The history of Humanity, from the Industrial Revolution to present, in just one sentence. Still, don't you think you might have missed a few details while summarizing what has happened over those centuries?
0zemp2c 3y ago
[flagged]
- taywrobel 3y ago
  You may want to go join an Amish community if you’re the type that thinks the horse and buggy isn’t going anywhere. It’s not the iPad schools that are the issue, it’s that fact kids are learning what they want really want to any time they want online, and are automating away the learning of things they don’t care about (I.e. using ChatGPT to write essays).
  - 0zemp2c 3y ago
    > it’s that fact kids are learning what they want really want to any time they want online they've been able to do that for years already...and the most tech-forward part of the US - California - is showing worse outcomes in education every year AI "automated education" will be thrown at poor people as a "solution"...the rich will continue to favor small classrooms, good teachers, low/no tech absolutely I would favor someone learning in the "Amish" style over someone drooling over an iPad...
  - yamtaddle 3y ago
    > it’s that fact kids are learning Don't have a lot of contact with educators, I take it?

soup10 3y ago

The automation revolution has been "just around the corner" forever. Still hasn't happened, some jobs are lost, some jobs are created, some are displaced, the welfare safety net gets a little bigger.

taywrobel 3y ago
Let’s look at another technological timeline to see what progression actually looks like… Jules Verne wrote “Robur the Conquerer” about heavier-than-air flight in 1886. The Wright Brothers first flight was in 1903. The first commercial flight was in 1914. The first trans-Atlantic flight was in 1919. And now the interesting one; the Hindenburg disaster was in 1937. 51 years after science fiction theorized about winged flight, 34 years after it was accomplished, 23 years after it was commercialized… people were still using dirigibles, and it wasn’t going great. And I’m sure the whole time those people were saying “we’ve been promised that flight is just around the corner forever”. So to me the interesting question is where on this general timeline are we at with AI? It’s been theorized, been proven experimentally, is now commercialized. Up next is the “transatlantic” stage where its actual value becomes apparent and it becomes more widely available. We may already be there with GPTs. I’m just hoping we figure out where we are before we hit the Hindenburg point.
zamnos 3y ago
The history of Humanity, from the Industrial Revolution to present, in just one sentence. Still, don't you think you might have missed a few details while summarizing what has happened over those centuries?

0zemp2c 3y ago

[flagged]

taywrobel 3y ago
You may want to go join an Amish community if you’re the type that thinks the horse and buggy isn’t going anywhere. It’s not the iPad schools that are the issue, it’s that fact kids are learning what they want really want to any time they want online, and are automating away the learning of things they don’t care about (I.e. using ChatGPT to write essays).
- 0zemp2c 3y ago
  > it’s that fact kids are learning what they want really want to any time they want online they've been able to do that for years already...and the most tech-forward part of the US - California - is showing worse outcomes in education every year AI "automated education" will be thrown at poor people as a "solution"...the rich will continue to favor small classrooms, good teachers, low/no tech absolutely I would favor someone learning in the "Amish" style over someone drooling over an iPad...
- yamtaddle 3y ago
  > it’s that fact kids are learning Don't have a lot of contact with educators, I take it?