I've dabbled with Monte Carlos sims for Sprints that have pointed tickets. I know 1 point ticket is sometimes a 3, rarely a 5. Sometimes a 3 is 1, and some ti

I've dabbled with Monte Carlos sims for Sprints that have pointed tickets. I know 1 point ticket is sometimes a 3, rarely a 5. Sometimes a 3 is 1, and some tickets turn out to be 5s or even 8s. I build a simulator based on the fact that most tickets will be accurately pointed, but sometimes they will be different (usually more). I already know what our capacity is, so I run the simulator 10,000 times or so and get back info that lets me say, "It appears that we are X% sure we will complete all the points in this sprint on schedule." It was an interesting exercise but I didn't push it too far because I was fearful of the "you told me you were 95% sure it would be done. You had math and stuff!"