4 ms·

I think the author is far too pessimistic about the capabilities of ML. I think we're already beyond the "it might not live up to the hype" stage and well into

I think the author is far too pessimistic about the capabilities of ML. I think we're already beyond the "it might not live up to the hype" stage and well into - "holy moley this is actually really well (for certain things) already - now let's figure out how to use and iterate upon it" stage. However - the level of Silicon Valley Bro VC funded hype is totally out of this world. Many of the claims of 'science' being used in marketing of many services seem to be misleading a lot of people as to how it all works. Some might even jest that they're far closer to magic than science as far as our understanding goes. Coupled with the very serious risks (not that we can 'fix' that now - the cat is out of the bag), how slow governments are when it comes to technology (not to mention the seriously lacking amount of regulation in the American tech sector), politicians with little-to-no technical understanding in general let alone of ML when combined with the corporations that already have market dominance in many areas - makes for an interesting time for certain. Marketing departments and now the general public using the term AI instead of ML is just the tip of the iceberg.

packetlost 4y ago
The practical applications of AI is undoubtedly overblown, but I do agree that it's ability to generate content is impressive and will (or rather, already is) being used for practical things.
fwungy 4y ago
The first 80% of AI tasks will be easy enough. The next 20% will be increasingly difficult with the last 1% virtually impossible. Same with driverless cars.
- danielmarkbruce 4y ago
  Folks who are pessimistic on driverless cars appear to move the goals on the last 1% repeatedly. Self driving cars are driving themselves around Phoenix and SF right at this minute.
  - vajrabum 4y ago
    I passed a driverless car from Cruise in San Francisco on my commute just the other day.
  - svachalek 4y ago
    The last 1% is actual self driving. Not "allowed to control the vehicle as long as human supervisor is glued to steering wheel with eyes on road". Or "closely monitored test conditions". We're about 7 years later than Tesla predicted on this already, and not all that much closer even without moving the goalpost an inch.
    - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
      In SF and Phoenix, Waymo has cars driving around with no drivers. It's here. Tesla (and maybe Cruise) may well be sucking at it, but Waymo isn't.
  - status200 4y ago
    They are indeed driving around SF this very minute causing unique disruptions, roughly two per day last year: https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2023/01/2023.01.25_ccsf_23.0125_cpuc_cruise_tier_2_advice_letter_protest_002.pdf https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-docume... https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-waymo-stopped-in-street-17890821.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-wa...
    - jdminhbg 4y ago
      Guess how many disruptions humans are causing per day in SF
    - v0idzer0 4y ago
      I love when people share this stat not realizing they’re proving these vehicles are already better drivers than humans. A human disrupts traffic on the road in front of my home every 10 minutes
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
photochemsyn 4y ago
With respect to marketing hype, it's comparable to the now-reduced scale of hype for quantum computing, which has mostly vanished from the headlines compared to a year or two ago. https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/03/28/1048355/quantum-computing-has-a-hype-problem/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/03/28/1048355/quantum-... The main difference is that LLMs have a lot of immediately valuable use cases in their current iteration, which has lead to widespread adoption. The hype cycle may have reached its peak and will now start to relax a bit.
nottorp 4y ago
> I think the author is far too pessimistic about the capabilities of ML. Why do you have to be pessimistic or optimistic? How about measuring? Most of us are engineers of some kind here. We don't need to believe or disbelieve.
- svachalek 4y ago
  No one can measure the future.
  - smcleod 4y ago
    We all measure the future past.
- idopmstuff 4y ago
  Being pessimistic or optimistic doesn't preclude measuring things. Many people are pessimistic about climate change precisely because we're measuring the amount of CO2 being released and because we're measuring changes in temperature, weather, etc. over time. Same with believing and disbelieving - sure, some people believe in religious-type stuff that has an absence of evidence, but there are lots of other things to believe or disbelieve based on evidence. I believe that Covid vaccines help to prevent serious illness precisely because there is a tremendous amount of evidence to that end.
  - nottorp 4y ago
    > some people believe in religious-type stuff that has an absence of evidence That's what I see with LLMs. Religious fervor.
joseph_grobbles 4y ago
[dead]
reportgunner 4y ago
> I think the author is far too pessimistic about the capabilities of ML. I think we're already beyond the "it might not live up to the hype" stage and well into - "holy moley this is actually really well (for certain things) already - now let's figure out how to use and iterate upon it" stage. I think we are rather in the "oh wow there is a slight possibility that chatbots are not a waste of cpu cycles with this" stage.

packetlost 4y ago

The practical applications of AI is undoubtedly overblown, but I do agree that it's ability to generate content is impressive and will (or rather, already is) being used for practical things.

fwungy 4y ago

The first 80% of AI tasks will be easy enough. The next 20% will be increasingly difficult with the last 1% virtually impossible. Same with driverless cars.

danielmarkbruce 4y ago
Folks who are pessimistic on driverless cars appear to move the goals on the last 1% repeatedly. Self driving cars are driving themselves around Phoenix and SF right at this minute.
- vajrabum 4y ago
  I passed a driverless car from Cruise in San Francisco on my commute just the other day.
- svachalek 4y ago
  The last 1% is actual self driving. Not "allowed to control the vehicle as long as human supervisor is glued to steering wheel with eyes on road". Or "closely monitored test conditions". We're about 7 years later than Tesla predicted on this already, and not all that much closer even without moving the goalpost an inch.
  - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
    In SF and Phoenix, Waymo has cars driving around with no drivers. It's here. Tesla (and maybe Cruise) may well be sucking at it, but Waymo isn't.
- status200 4y ago
  They are indeed driving around SF this very minute causing unique disruptions, roughly two per day last year: https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2023/01/2023.01.25_ccsf_23.0125_cpuc_cruise_tier_2_advice_letter_protest_002.pdf https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-docume... https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-cars/ https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-waymo-stopped-in-street-17890821.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/san-francisco-wa...
  - jdminhbg 4y ago
    Guess how many disruptions humans are causing per day in SF
  - v0idzer0 4y ago
    I love when people share this stat not realizing they’re proving these vehicles are already better drivers than humans. A human disrupts traffic on the road in front of my home every 10 minutes

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

photochemsyn 4y ago

With respect to marketing hype, it's comparable to the now-reduced scale of hype for quantum computing, which has mostly vanished from the headlines compared to a year or two ago. https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/03/28/1048355/quantum-computing-has-a-hype-problem/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/03/28/1048355/quantum-... The main difference is that LLMs have a lot of immediately valuable use cases in their current iteration, which has lead to widespread adoption. The hype cycle may have reached its peak and will now start to relax a bit.

nottorp 4y ago

> I think the author is far too pessimistic about the capabilities of ML. Why do you have to be pessimistic or optimistic? How about measuring? Most of us are engineers of some kind here. We don't need to believe or disbelieve.

svachalek 4y ago
No one can measure the future.
- smcleod 4y ago
  We all measure the future past.
idopmstuff 4y ago
Being pessimistic or optimistic doesn't preclude measuring things. Many people are pessimistic about climate change precisely because we're measuring the amount of CO2 being released and because we're measuring changes in temperature, weather, etc. over time. Same with believing and disbelieving - sure, some people believe in religious-type stuff that has an absence of evidence, but there are lots of other things to believe or disbelieve based on evidence. I believe that Covid vaccines help to prevent serious illness precisely because there is a tremendous amount of evidence to that end.
- nottorp 4y ago
  > some people believe in religious-type stuff that has an absence of evidence That's what I see with LLMs. Religious fervor.

joseph_grobbles 4y ago

[dead]

reportgunner 4y ago

> I think the author is far too pessimistic about the capabilities of ML. I think we're already beyond the "it might not live up to the hype" stage and well into - "holy moley this is actually really well (for certain things) already - now let's figure out how to use and iterate upon it" stage. I think we are rather in the "oh wow there is a slight possibility that chatbots are not a waste of cpu cycles with this" stage.