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That's a helluva a catch. At the core, stats tell a story of what a player has done in the past. Projections predict what a player might do based on what compa
by look_lookatme 15y ago
That's a helluva a catch.
At the core, stats tell a story of what a player has done in the past. Projections predict what a player might do based on what comparable players have done in the past. Statistics don't tell the future. They are just one tool of the scouting process.
Plus the models are always evolving. What was considered an indicator of talent 20 years ago might be inferior to the indicator 10 years ago that is actually inferior to what is in vogue today.
Statistics don't lie, but what story do you think they actually tell?
- Super_Jambo 15y agoAccording to 'Thinking Fast and Slow' which I'm currently reading expert predictors of performance are generally worse than even quite simple statistical models. This being due to all the flaws in human decision making - if it's a sunny day, if the player 'looks the part' if the scout happens to view them on a day when they're feeling lucky. It's a very good book, but it suggests that in all fields of prediction you should actually rely on combinations of statistical metrics over expert judgment. Pretty hard to believe I accept.