4 ms·
NBA media and fans are much much more resistant to empirical stuff than baseball. I think it's because the appeal of the game is more about emotions and hype th
by mousa 15y ago
NBA media and fans are much much more resistant to empirical stuff than baseball. I think it's because the appeal of the game is more about emotions and hype than baseball. There's this feeling that things can't be captured in the numbers, but what they use instead is so inferior for judging players. I mean the Knicks acquired Carmelo Anthony at the cost of all the efficient players on the team. All of the stats guys were very skeptical the media blared on and on about how they would be contenders and they were terrible until this undrafted rookie came along.
Another example, what I've found interesting reading some of the NBA statisticians blogs is this argument about "clutch". Most fans and media insist that Kobe Bryant, a player who shoots a lot of shots at the end of games and makes spectacular shots sometimes is the best closer in the game. Meanwhile almost all statistical evidence points to Chris Paul, a player who runs boring routine plays down the stretch, as by far the best closer in the league in terms of actually winning close games.
Until the NBA stats can predict winners like baseball, the public will always go by the "look." The teams themselves however, are almost all hiring statisticians now.
- brildum 15y agoBaseball is easier to predict from statistics when compared to most other sports. Most plays in baseball occur in isolation (relatively). For example: pitcher vs. batter -- each pitch is essentially a new, repeatable experiment. In basketball, I would guess that there are very few repeatable experiments. (Different players, strategies, locations, etc). It is a much more fluid game and therefore determining an indicator of success is much more difficult.
- darksaga 15y agoAgreed. Also keep in mind baseball probably keeps track of more stats than any other sport, making it easier to spot potential. I once read an interview with a Major League scout who said he relied heavily on the numbers. He basically said, "We can get any stats, on any of these guys, at any minute, and find out exactly where they are, and if they have the numbers for the big leagues." Talk about pressure. . it was an eye opener.
- CC11526 15y agoStats work well in baseball because there is no time component to the game. The clock completely changes the approaches you have to take in analyzing any other sport.
- kevinkemp 15y agoExactly. The key difference is how advanced the statistics that matter are in the different sports. Only very advanced stats will really tell the story in basketball whereas it is much easier to see in baseball with just baseline stats. Most laymen take that to mean that watching games is the only way to tell when, in reality, they just need to get the right stats and formulas.