3 ms·

> One day the US will crash and burn, but I'm betting you a dollar it won't happen in this decade or the next. I am willing to take you up on your bet. My answ

> One day the US will crash and burn, but I'm betting you a dollar it won't happen in this decade or the next. I am willing to take you up on your bet. My answer to your point is quite simple really. Consumption is going to slow down massively in USA over the next two decades because of Demographics. By current statistics itself, there is a major decline in young population in 70% of the counties in USA [1]. The median age in USA is 38.1 years. So 2 decades from now, this median age is going to shift to 50-60 because birth rates are plummeting big time. Unless US can produce more babies it is going towards an ageing society (like what Japan is experiencing right now). So when consumption falls, economy gets sluggish and that would cause downturn again. I wouldn't be surprised if the next two decades ends up worse than the Great Depression of the early 1900s considering how badly managed the current recession is. [1]: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/06/fewer-younger-adults-drives-population-loss-in-some-us-cities.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/06/fewer-younger...

neximo64 3y ago
The reason that wont happen is simply immigration. The US cant produce more babies, but it can import more people in a younger demographic. The death by demographic would have happened a long time a go in the US if it was not for immigration. Japan has not fared so well. Theres a reason the south of europe has massive population drain as well as the demographic issue you're describing.
riffraff 3y ago
But even Japan has still not defaulted after 30+ years of stagnation and a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 230% (US is 120%), and unemployment is basically zero. For comparison, the great depression had >20% unemployment and -15% GDP Anyway, let's reconvene in 20 years :) Let me spell out my prediction for posterity: > The US will not default on its debt in this decade or the next, and the economy will not have a crash worse than the great depression (-15% GDP and unemployment above 20%)

neximo64 3y ago

The reason that wont happen is simply immigration. The US cant produce more babies, but it can import more people in a younger demographic. The death by demographic would have happened a long time a go in the US if it was not for immigration. Japan has not fared so well. Theres a reason the south of europe has massive population drain as well as the demographic issue you're describing.

riffraff 3y ago

But even Japan has still not defaulted after 30+ years of stagnation and a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 230% (US is 120%), and unemployment is basically zero. For comparison, the great depression had >20% unemployment and -15% GDP Anyway, let's reconvene in 20 years :) Let me spell out my prediction for posterity: > The US will not default on its debt in this decade or the next, and the economy will not have a crash worse than the great depression (-15% GDP and unemployment above 20%)