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only that those two are intimately related. Countries don't hold US treasuries because they're great investments (..... obviously). They hold them BECAUSE they
by bigger_inside 3y ago
only that those two are intimately related.
Countries don't hold US treasuries because they're great investments (..... obviously). They hold them BECAUSE they have liabilities in USD BECAUSE their international trade is in USD, and having to covert their local currency to USD not only introduces a currency risk.
The world financial system is also organized to make local currencies of poorer countries depreciate over time, more than the USD does. Just like inflation is a silent tax that robs wealth from the poorer stratums inside a country, faster inflation/depreciation in the global south than in the north does the same on a global scale; it's a means of exploitation. Holding USD treasuries protects against that, at least a little.
The fall in USD use in world trade doesn't immediately translate into an equivalent fall of reserve holdings because the trade isn't the only reason they hold them. The other big one is serving international debt, also in USD (for.. the same reasons as above, again an exploitation mechanism). So even if you stopped ALL trade in USD tomorrow, countries would have years' worth of USD denominated debt to pay off (which, of course, never pays off, because just like student loans, it accrues fees and interest and will never be paid down under "normal" circumstances, just rolled over).
So there's a second change to watch: the change in debt denominated in other countires' currencies. It's a slow moving train.
- gsatic 3y agoI dont thinks its a means of exploitation in the sense that controling inflation is not something anyone has mastered in hundreds of years of trying all kinds of things.
- ethbr0 3y agoInflation is a consequence of the conditions that permit economic growth (fractional reserve banking / currency creation, credit extension / investment / speculation). We could "solve" inflation tomorrow, but we'd also be zeroing growth. Ergo why the usual target is a small but acceptable bit of inflation. E.g. the US Fed's 2%